Expert political insight and analysis in an engaging format. <br/><br/><a href="https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">getsmartpolitics.substack.com</a>
Get Smart Politics Podcast
Claim This Podcastby Eric Bohl
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Expert political insight and analysis in an engaging format. <br/><br/><a href="https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast">getsmartpolitics.substack.com</a>
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Recent Episodes
August 15, 2022
Political Cheat Sheet: FBI Search Scrambles Everything
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August 8, 2022
Political Cheat Sheet: Primary results are shifting the conversation
<p>Good Monday morning!</p><p>My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support!</p><p>This week’s poll:</p><p></p><p>Last week’s poll was <strong>Should Joe Biden run for President in 2024? </strong>I’m also including the results from two weeks ago, when I asked <strong>Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024?</strong></p><p>Looks like you all are interested in some new blood on both sides!</p><p>The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.</p><p><strong>What's happening this week</strong></p><p>This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting <strong>Monday, August 8, 2022</strong>.</p><p>Today is <strong>92 days</strong> until the November midterm elections (about 13 weeks).</p><p>We are <strong>820 days</strong> from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).</p><p><strong>Top Storylines</strong></p><p><strong>There is still such a thing as “too far” in politics</strong></p><p>* For the past few years, it has felt like there was no limit to how extreme politicians could get without paying a penalty at the ballot box. Candidates of both parties have said and done all manner of outrageous or over-the-line things, yet it seemed to only make them more popular with the base. Last week, in my home state of Missouri, this theory was put to a major test. Fortunately, the outrageous candidate lost.</p><p>* Former Governor <strong>Eric Greitens</strong>, who resigned after not even a year and a half in office, was a leading candidate for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. He created numerous scandals and outrages, including allegedly tying up his mistress in his basement, stripping her naked, spitting in her mouth, and photographing her for blackmail. In the ensuing divorce, his wife alleged he had physically and verbally abused her and their sons, even hitting their three-year-old son and knocking out a tooth. He turned his MAGA up to 11 for his Senatorial comeback bid, issuing an online ad in which he and a heavily-armed SWAT team executed a no-knock raid on a suburban house in order to hunt “RINOs,” or Republicans In Name Only. Despite all this, he led the field in most polls until only a month or so ago.</p><p>* The “RINO Hunter” ad seemed to backfire on Greitens, turning off the same undecided voters he needed to achieve victory. Several large ad buys carpeted the airwaves in July to highlight his alleged abuse of his wife and children, which also had a clear effect on the polls. In the end, despite a half-endorsement from former President <strong>Donald Trump</strong>, he only earned 18.9% of the vote. Greitens finished almost 27 points behind the winner, State Attorney General <strong>Eric Schmitt</strong>, and only won three of the state’s 114 counties.</p><p></p><p>* <strong>Why this matters</strong>: Politics is still brutal and divisive right now. Candidates continue to go to the extremes in search of attention and votes. But I think we have seen that there is an edge. Candidates can go too far. Between Greitens and Rep. <strong>Madison Cawthorn</strong> (R-NC), who was sent packing after numerous outrages and poor choices, candidates who are too extreme actually can lose support and votes rather than rack up more and more support. There’s a tipping point out there - the problem is that it’s WAY out there.</p><p>* <strong>Bottom line</strong>: There is reason to hope that our country does still have some sense of decency… you just have to dig pretty deep to find it right now.</p><p><strong>Kansas abortion amendment changes electoral calculus</strong></p><p>* This week we saw the first hint of what could become another major factor in the left’s favor this November. Voters in Kansas <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/us/kansas-abortion-rights-vote.html">resoundingly defeated</a> an amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed the legislature to restrict or outlaw abortion. The pro-choice side won 59-41 in one of the reddest of red states after both sides spent millions of dollars educating voters about the issue. Turnout was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/03/high-primary-voter-turnout-kansas-abortion-amendment-election-results/10225025002/">more than double</a> that of some recent primaries, with many voters unaffiliated with either party showing up to vote solely on the amendment.</p><p>* Even pro-choice activists were surprised by the magnitude of both the electoral turnout and the win. As shown in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/03/abortion-kansas-midterm-elections/">the fascinating graphic by The Washington Post shown below</a>, every single county voted to the left of the 2020 Presidential election. As the Post explains, “The (diagonal) line indicates an equivalent margin in the 2020 presidential contest and in the amendment vote.” This was no fluke or anomaly; voters knew what they were doing and were cold to the amendment.</p><p>* <strong>Why this matters</strong>: Democrats hope that abortion rights are truly as popular as this vote made it seem. They plan to <a target="_blank" href="https://rollcall.com/2022/08/04/democrats-double-down-on-abortion-rights-after-kansas-referendum/">double down</a> on the issue moving forward. Unfortunately for them, abortion will not actually be on very many ballots in November, with measures currently expected in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/05/1115808472/kansas-abortion-ballot-measure-campaign-lessons">Kentucky, Michigan, California and Vermont</a>. None of these states have competitive Senate races this year that could help the Dems overcome the general headwinds they face.</p><p></p><p>The one thing you can count on is that Democrats will now do everything they can to convince voters everywhere that “abortion is on the ballot” when they vote for candidates. Get ready to hear that phrase a lot.</p><p></p><p>What remains to be seen is just how motivating such an effort is. Holding a separate, clear vote on an issue is a lot different than voting on candidates who hold all kinds of other opinions. No matter how strongly voters feel about abortion, they’ll also be taking into account the economy, inflation, taxes, and everything else they typically consider when deciding on a candidate.</p><p>* <strong>Bottom line</strong>: It’s not easy to make an election a referendum about one issue if that issue is not literally on the ballot. The news out of Kansas gives the Dems hope, but it is likely not enough to transform a red wave into a blue one.</p><p><strong>Reconciliation bill heads toward final passage</strong></p><p>* Sunday afternoon, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/07/democrats-senate-reconciliation-votearama-00050222">the Senate voted 51-50</a>, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, to pass the Democrats’ long-awaited budget reconciliation package. The House plans to come back into session to vote on it this Friday.</p><p>* The bill has major provisions for climate, clean energy, taxes, health care, prescription drug prices and more. It allocates over $300 billion for climate change, extends Obamacare subsidies, increases conservation funding, and provides drought relief. The new costs are more than offset by new revenue, including a 15% minimum tax on large corporations, a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks, and increased funding for IRS enforcement.</p><p>* <strong>Why this matters</strong>: The recent string of wins continues to roll for Biden. In just the past few weeks, he has notched wins on this bill, the CHIPS Act, a burn pit bill, a historic gun reform bill, the approval of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the killing of al-Qaida boss Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul. Combined with the recent pullback in energy prices and strong jobs reports, things are starting to look up for the party in power. These positive developments couldn’t have come at a better time for the Dems. If the news hadn’t turned around, they may have been headed for a clobbering like no modern party has seen.</p><p>* <strong>Bottom line</strong>: The Democrats are still more likely than not to take losses in November, but they have finally taken steps to mitigate the damage.</p><p><strong>What I'm Watching</strong></p><p>Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:</p><p><strong>Politics & Elections</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3584302-axelrod-biden-wins-may-reduce-midterm-headwinds-facing-democrats-to-category-3/">Axelrod: Biden wins may reduce midterm headwinds facing Democrats to ‘Category 3’</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://getpocket.com/read/3675623462">Fetterman Plans His Return to Campaign Trail in Pennsylvania Senate Race</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/us/politics/rnc-convention-milwaukee-2024.html">The Republican National Convention Will Be Held in Milwaukee in 2024</a></p><p><strong>Foreign Policy</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3114362/us-drone-strike-kills-al-qaida-leader-in-kabul/utm_source/us-drone-strike-kills-al-qaida-leader-in-kabul/">U.S. Drone Strike Kills al-Qaida Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/missiles-killed-al-qaeda-boss-likely-used-blades-not-explosives-2022-8">The missiles that killed Qaeda boss Ayman al-Zawahiri were likely a secret variant that uses sharp blades, not explosives, to take out targets</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/06/taiwan-china-policy-assurances-military/">From the one-China policy to the Taiwan Relations Act, here’s what to know</a></p><p><strong>Policy & Legislation</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://getpocket.com/read/3673661060">Senate Passes Bill to Expand Benefits for Veterans Exposed to Burn Pits</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3586658-senate-ratifies-accession-of-sweden-and-finland-to-nato/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Senate votes 95-1 to add Sweden, Finland to NATO</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3587580-mcconnell-dismisses-claim-he-was-played-on-reconciliation-bill/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">McConnell dismisses claim he was ‘played’ on reconciliation bill</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3590121-democrats-add-stock-buyback-tax-scrap-carried-interest-to-win-sinema-over/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Democrats add stock buyback tax, scrap carried interest to win Sinema over</a></p><p><strong>Miscellaneous</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/02/pentagon-jan-6-phones-wiped/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Phones of top Pentagon officials were wiped of Jan. 6 messages</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/us/politics/alex-jones-texts-jan-6-committee.html">Lawyer Says He Intends to Give Alex Jones’s Texts to House Jan. 6 Panel</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nationalreview.com/news/third-person-dies-after-being-struck-by-lightning-outside-white-house/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Third Person Dies after Being Struck by Lightning Outside White House</a></p><p></p><p><strong>Balance of Power</strong></p><p><strong>House of Representatives</strong></p><p>One change this week. <a target="_blank" href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown">Democrats hold a </a><a target="_blank" href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown"><strong>220-210</strong></a><a target="_blank" href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown"> advantage</a> over the GOP. The Republicans lost one member last week with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/03/rep-jackie-walorski-indiana-republican-killed-car-accident/">tragic death</a> of Rep. <strong>Jackie Walorski</strong> (R-IN) in a car accident.</p><p>Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.</p><p><strong>Senate</strong></p><p>The Senate is tied, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats</a>. Vice President <strong>Kamala Harris</strong> holds the tie-breaking vote.</p><p><strong>Polling</strong></p><p><strong>President</strong></p><p><strong>Average</strong>: <a target="_blank" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">39.3% Approve, 55.6% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%)</a></p><p><strong>Change (in Net) from last week</strong>: No change</p><p><strong>Recent trend</strong>: President Biden’s approval rate has not yet significantly improved, despite his recent victories. His approval level is now <a target="_blank" href="https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations">4.8 points below where President Trump’s was</a> at this point in his term.</p><p><strong>Congress</strong></p><p><strong>Average</strong>: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html">19.6% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.4%)</a></p><p><strong>Change (in Net) from last week</strong>: Improved 2.6%</p><p><strong>Recent</strong> <strong>trend</strong>: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 7 points.</p><p><strong>Generic Ballot</strong></p><p><strong>Average</strong>: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html">GOP +0.1%</a></p><p><strong>Change from last week</strong>: GOP advantage down 0.8%</p><p><strong>Recent trend</strong>: The GOP advantage that has held steady throughout 2022 is on the razor’s edge of evaporating. At this point, the parties are effectively tied. Due to the makeup of the Congressional map, Republicans have an inherent advantage of a few points, but the additional margin they held throughout the spring and first half of the summer is gone.</p><p><strong>On the Calendar</strong></p><p><strong>President</strong></p><p>Today, President Biden plans to travel to Kentucky to view damage from recent flooding, assuming he is sufficiently recovered from COVID.</p><p><strong>House</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.majorityleader.gov/calendar">Scheduled for recess this week and the next five weeks</a>, but tentatively planning to briefly return this Friday to vote on the reconciliation package.</p><p><strong>Senate</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm">Scheduled for recess this week and the next three weeks</a>, but subject to change if there are any hiccups in passing the reconciliation package.</p><p><strong>Upcoming Primaries</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-calendar/">Full list of primaries</a></p><p><strong>Tomorrow</strong>: Tuesday, August 9 - four states with federal primaries:</p><p><strong>Connecticut</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: <strong>Richard Blumenthal</strong> (D) is running for a third term. He has already been nominated by his party at its convention. Three Republicans are competing for the chance to face him in November, but their odds of prevailing are long. This seat will stay with the Dems in deep-blue Connecticut.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Connecticut has five House seats, unchanged from the 2010 Census. The incumbents, all Democrats, are all running for re-election and are all expected to win tomorrow. In November, keep an eye on the 2nd District covering the eastern half of the state, held by Rep. <strong>Joe Courtney</strong> (D), and the 5th District covering the northwestern portion, held by Rep. <strong>Jahana Hayes</strong> (D). Both districts are rated as D+2, making them potential battlegrounds in November should a red wave materialize.</p><p><strong>Minnesota</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: No Senate race.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Minnesota retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. <strong>Jim Hagedorn</strong> (R) died in February, so the election in the 1st District will be a special election to serve out the remainder of his term. The district is nominally R+7, but it has been extremely close each of the past three elections. National attention will be on the 5th District, where controversial Rep. <strong>Ilhan Omar</strong> (D) has drawn stiff competition and big opposition money in her race to keep her safe Democratic seat.</p><p><strong>Vermont</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: <strong>Patrick Leahy</strong> (D) is retiring after eight terms. His likely successor is Rep. <strong>Peter Welch</strong> (D), who has served eight terms as Vermont’s only representative in the House. He is expected to win handily, both tomorrow and in November.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: With Rep. Welch stepping down to run for Senate, the race to succeed him in Vermont’s single House seat is likely to be won by State Senate President pro tem <strong>Becca Balint</strong> (D). She is expected to cruise to victory in November.</p><p><strong>Wisconsin</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: <strong>Ron Johnson</strong> (R) is running for a third term. He is expected to face a stiff challenge from Lieutenant Governor <strong>Mandela Barnes</strong> (D), after the other major Dem candidates dropped out and endorsed Barnes. Preliminary polling shows a very close race in November for this 50-50 state.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Wisconsin retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. <strong>Ron Kind</strong> (D) is retiring in the 3rd District, which leans R+4. This is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP, which has consolidated behind <strong>Derrick Van Orden</strong>, a former Navy SEAL and 2020 candidate for the seat.</p><p></p><p><strong>In Closing…</strong></p><p>I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!</p><p>—Eric</p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Get Smart Politics at <a href="https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe</a>
August 1, 2022
Political Cheat Sheet: Biden finally gets some wins
<p>My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support!</p><p>This week’s poll:</p><p>The results of last week’s poll: <strong>Should the federal government take dramatic action to counteract climate change? </strong>We had 148 votes cast. Thanks to everyone who participated!</p><p>The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.</p><p><strong>What's happening this week</strong></p><p>This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting <strong>Monday, August 1, 2022</strong>.</p><p>Today is <strong>99 days</strong> until the November midterm elections (about 14 weeks).</p><p>We are <strong>827 days</strong> from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).</p><p><strong>Top Storylines</strong></p><p><strong>Biden finally scores some wins</strong></p><p>* Over the past two months, I’ve often apologized for feeling like I’m being overly critical of President Biden. Unfortunately for him, though, just about everything that could go wrong has been going wrong for quite some time. Last week was the first time in months that it felt like he was seeing a glimmer of hope.</p><p>* As we’ll discuss in a second, the yearlong logjam finally broke and Congress passed a semiconductor and research bill to shore up domestic supplies and help the U.S. compete with China in this critical space. After weeks in the stratosphere, gas prices finally felt like they were coming back down to earth, although they’re still <a target="_blank" href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/">hovering near $4 nationwide</a>.</p><p>* The biggest news was Senator <strong>Joe Manchin</strong>’s (D-WV) shocking reversal on the climate, energy, tax increase, and prescription drug bill he had so publicly walked away from just weeks ago. The bill is being called the “<a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/climate/climate-change-deal-manchin.html">most ambitious climate action undertaken by the U.S.</a>” This legislation now looks poised to become law over the coming weeks.</p><p>* <strong>Why this matters</strong>: Biden desperately needed these wins. However, he’s still a long way from being out of the woods. The economy is still not in great shape, and last week’s news that we have had two consecutive quarters of economic contraction (which led to a very public argument about whether or not we are technically in a recession - also more on this in a second) stepped on Biden’s good news week.</p><p>* <strong>Bottom line</strong>: Having some wins going into November may mitigate the damage of the predicted red tsunami and help it only hit as a normal wave. It may not be perfect, but Biden and his team will gladly take it.</p><p><strong>Congress passes semiconductor bill</strong></p><p>* On Thursday, <a target="_blank" href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/28/chips-act-passes-house-on-way-to-biden-signing/">the House passed the CHIPS Act</a> with a broad, bipartisan vote of 243-187. It previously <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/27/politics/senate-vote-chips-bill-semiconductor-manufacturing/index.html">passed the Senate 64-33</a>, and now awaits President Biden’s signature. The bill <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/semiconductor-chips-bill-congress-explained-11658866622">will provide over $280 billion</a> in total funding, with $52.7 billion of the total directed toward domestic semiconductor production. About $200 billion is directed toward scientific research and the National Science Foundation. It also reauthorizes NASA and provides funding for Supreme Court security.</p><p>* Republicans were fuming over the bill’s passage, not necessarily because of the substance, but because of what they felt was a deceitful move by Majority Leader <strong>Chuck Schumer</strong> (D-NY). As we discussed recently, Minority Leader <strong>Mitch McConnell</strong> (R-KY) said over the July 4 weekend that Republicans would not help pass a semiconductor incentives bill if the Democrats were going to move forward with a reconciliation package. Reconciliation appeared dead as a doornail when Senator <strong>Joe Manchin</strong> (D-WV) backed out a couple of weeks ago, which made Republicans comfortable moving the CHIPS Act forward. No sooner had it passed than Manchin and Schumer announced they had been secretly continuing negotiations on a reconciliation package and had reached an agreement.</p><p>* <strong>Why this matters</strong>: Democrats are more than happy to pull one over on McConnell and give him what they feel is a taste of his own medicine. They also are happy to finally have Republicans be on the receiving end of a Manchin power move. I would say this double-cross would poison the well for legislation the rest of the year, but I think that ship already sailed long ago.</p><p>* <strong>Bottom line</strong>: The Senate is now finished working across the aisle for 2022. Anything else major will have to wait until either a lame duck session or early 2023.</p><p><strong>Are we in a recession?</strong></p><p>* The other big story from last week was the news that the U.S. experienced its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters">second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction</a>, which historically has been used as a shorthand definition of a recession. The White House, Treasury Secretary <strong>Janet Yellen</strong>, and a host of other surrogates took to the airwaves ahead of and immediately after the report to try and change the narrative, arguing that the technical definition of a “recession” includes many more factors than this rule of thumb. This became the predominant argument of the political class for at least three or four days last week.</p><p>* Technically, the White House is correct: the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions">National Bureau of Economic Research takes numerous other factors into account</a> when deciding whether or not to label events “recessions.” However, this yet again looked to me like a messaging mistake for the Biden administration. Rather than making the discussion about the positive news of the week (see above), they turned the narrative into a grand example of the <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect">Streisand Effect</a>: when attempts to minimize or distract attention from a piece of information have the unintended consequence of drawing further attention to the issue.</p><p>* <strong>Why this matters</strong>: The multi-day argument over the definition of “recession” ultimately led far more people to talk about there being a recession than if the administration hadn’t made the definition such an issue. People are feeling the pinch of higher prices, and they don’t much care what word you use to label it. They just want to know that their elected leaders care about them and are working hard to fix the problem.</p><p>* <strong>Bottom line</strong>: The Biden team continues to be tone-deaf in its efforts to address the economic needs and concerns of everyday Americans. They need to bring in some high-level leadership that can focus on how their words connect to ordinary people and stop focusing on eggheadery such as this.</p><p><strong>What I'm Watching</strong></p><p>Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:</p><p><strong>Politics & Elections</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/democrats-working-class-voters.html">How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They’re Not a Party of Rich Elites?</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3578887-the-memo-no-really-what-if-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-runs-for-president/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">No, really — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president?</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3572304-revolving-door-creates-questions-and-complications-for-kamala-harris/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Revolving door creates questions and complications for Kamala Harris</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html">Republicans Confront Unexpected Online Money Slowdown</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/fox-news-trump-speech.html">Fox News snubbed Trump’s speech, in what’s becoming a pattern.</a></p><p><strong>Policy & Legislation</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3575251-white-house-says-biden-will-make-decision-on-student-loans/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">White House says Biden will make decision on student loans</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/28/reconciliation-joe-manchin/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">What is reconciliation, and what are Democrats going to get done with it?</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3573908-senate-democrats-running-out-of-time-to-move-agenda/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Senate Democrats running out of time to move agenda</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/3580230-bill-restricting-big-cat-ownership-made-famous-by-tiger-king-passes-house/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Bill restricting Big Cat ownership, made famous by ‘Tiger King’ and pushed by Carole Baskin, passes House</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3571007-permanent-daylight-saving-time-hits-brick-wall-in-house/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Permanent daylight saving time hits brick wall in House</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/biden-emergency-declarations.html">Biden Is Facing Crisis After Crisis. But Are They Emergencies?</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3575349-democrats-introduce-bill-to-enact-term-limits-for-supreme-court-justices/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Democrats introduce bill to enact term limits for Supreme Court justices</a></p><p><strong>Congress</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3572973-former-congressman-charged-with-insider-trading/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Former congressman charged with insider trading</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3577326-pelosis-husband-sells-off-up-to-5-million-worth-of-chipmaker-stock-ahead-of-semiconductor-bill-vote/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Pelosi’s husband sells off up to $5 million worth of chipmaker stock ahead of semiconductor bill vote</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://rollcall.com/2022/07/28/angry-callers-threatening-congress-interns-front-lines/">Angry callers are threatening Congress. These interns are on the front lines</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3573901-new-house-security-program-to-provide-members-10k-to-safeguard-their-homes/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">New House security program to provide members $10K to safeguard their homes</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3576902-freedom-caucus-demands-rule-changes-for-house-and-gop-conference/?utm_source=pocket_mylist">Freedom Caucus demands rule changes for House and GOP conference</a></p><p>And a fun one:</p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3574816-senator-jokes-about-using-defense-production-act-to-save-choco-taco/">Senator jokes about using Defense Production Act to save Choco Taco</a></p><p><strong>Balance of Power</strong></p><p><strong>House of Representatives</strong></p><p>No changes this week. <a target="_blank" href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown">Democrats hold a </a><a target="_blank" href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown"><strong>220-211</strong></a><a target="_blank" href="https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown"> advantage</a> over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.</p><p><strong>Senate</strong></p><p>The Senate is tied, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats</a>. Vice President <strong>Kamala Harris</strong> holds the tie-breaking vote.</p><p><strong>Polling</strong></p><p><strong>President</strong></p><p><strong>Average</strong>: <a target="_blank" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">39.7% Approve, 56.0% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%)</a></p><p><strong>Change (in Net) from last week</strong>: Improved 2.7%</p><p><strong>Recent trend</strong>: President Biden bounced back this week, almost improving his net by 3 points. He’s still about 3 points lower than he was two months ago, though, and has a long way to go to get back to positive approval. His approval level is now <a target="_blank" href="https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations">3.8 points below where President Trump’s was</a> at this point in his term.</p><p><strong>Congress</strong></p><p><strong>Average</strong>: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html">18.4% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -54.0%)</a></p><p><strong>Change (in Net) from last week</strong>: Worsened 0.3%</p><p><strong>Recent</strong> <strong>trend</strong>: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 8 points.</p><p><strong>Generic Ballot</strong></p><p><strong>Average</strong>: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html">GOP +0.9%</a></p><p><strong>Change from last week</strong>: GOP advantage down 1.6%</p><p><strong>Recent trend</strong>: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January, but it has shown some signs of narrowing in recent weeks.</p><p><strong>On the Calendar</strong></p><p><strong>President</strong></p><p>No travel announced.</p><p><strong>House</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.majorityleader.gov/calendar">Recess this week and the next six weeks</a>.</p><p><strong>Senate</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm">In session this week, recess the next four weeks</a>.</p><p><strong>Upcoming Primaries</strong></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-calendar/">Full list of primaries</a></p><p><strong>Tomorrow</strong>: Tuesday, August 2 - five states with federal primaries:</p><p><strong>Arizona</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: Big GOP race to see who goes up against Sen. <strong>Mark Kelly</strong> (D) in November. I covered this race a few weeks ago. It looks like this is coming down to the wire as a two-man race between Trump-backed venture capitalist and <strong>Peter Thiel</strong> acolyte <strong>Blake Masters</strong> and former solar energy exec <strong>Jim Lamon</strong>. Tons of cash has been spent in this race by both candidates as well as outside PACs. Masters initially separated himself from the crowd after Trump’s endorsement but has lost some ground after some stumbles and unearthing of past controversial statements. Lamon’s personal fortune has allowed him to continue pounding the airwaves to capitalize on Masters’ missteps. This one will come down to the wire.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Arizona has nine House seats, and incumbents are running for re-election in all but one, where Democratic Rep. <strong>Ann Kirkpatrick</strong> is retiring in the 6th District. Her seat is a strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, as the new district leans R+3. Also watch the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. <strong>Tom O'Halleran</strong> has been redistricted into an R+6 district. Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination to face him in November. Six-term GOP Rep. <strong>David Schweikert</strong> is also facing a strong primary challenge in the 1st District, after multiple ethical issues in recent years.</p><p><strong>Kansas</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: Two-term incumbent Sen. <strong>Jerry Moran</strong> (R) is running for re-election and is expected to coast to victory against token opposition.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Kansas has four districts, but only two-term Rep. <strong>Sharice Davids</strong> faces a strong challenge this year in the R+1 2nd District, on the outskirts of Kansas City. Two Republicans are battling for the chance to face her in November.</p><p>* <strong>Ballot Issue</strong>: The largest attention tomorrow will be on the ballot proposal to amend the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/us/politics/kansas-abortion-vote.html">State Constitutional regarding abortion</a>. This will be the first major ballot test nationwide in the wake of the Dobbs decision and is being closely watched by many other states.</p><p><strong>Michigan</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: No Senate race.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Michigan lost one seat in the 2020 Census and now has 13. The reshuffling of the map has created several interesting situations, with two incumbent Republicans facing one another for the new 4th District, two incumbent Democrats facing off in both the 11th and 12th Districts, and no incumbents running in the 10th or 13th Districts. Major national attention has also fallen on the GOP primary in the 3rd District, where incumbent <strong>Peter Meijer</strong>, one of only 10 Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump, is seeking re-election. National Democrats have spent significant money trying to promote Meijer’s opponent <strong>John Gibbs</strong>, a staunch Trump ally, drawing criticism from both the left and right for hypocrisy.</p><p><strong>Missouri</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: Two-term incumbent Sen. <strong>Roy Blunt</strong> (R) is retiring. The GOP primary race to succeed him is coming down to three main candidates. In alphabetical order, they are: Former Governor <strong>Eric Greitens</strong>, six-term Congresswoman <strong>Vicky Hartzler</strong>*, and Attorney General <strong>Eric Schmitt</strong>. Greitens has received a lot of national attention for his attempt to return to glory after resigning from his governorship in 2017 amid numerous scandals. After leading the pack for much of the race, he has begun to noticeably fade in the polls in recent weeks. Hartzler and Schmitt now appear to be duking it out for the victory. Depending on which poll you look at, they are either neck-and-neck, trading leads, or Schmitt has a slight-to-moderate advantage. All polls still have significant levels of undecideds, though, so this one could go either way.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: The delegation has two open seats, to replace Rep. Hartzler and Rep. <strong>Billy Long</strong> (R), who also chose to run for Senate. Both races are hotly contested by a large number of viable candidates, and no one has emerged as a clear frontrunner in either. Whoever wins will coast to victory in November, as both districts are heavily Republican. The other interesting primary is in St. Louis, where “squad” member <strong>Cori Bush</strong> (D) faces sitting state senator <strong>Steve Roberts</strong> (D). While most seem to favor Bush in the race, don’t be surprised if Roberts gives her a run for her money in this heavily-Dem district. Incumbents are expected to cruise to victory in the other five districts.</p><p><strong>Tennessee (Thursday, 8/4)</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: Five-term incumbent Sen. <strong>Patty Murray</strong> (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: With longtime Dem Rep. <strong>Jim Cooper</strong> retiring rather than run in his now-R+9 5th District, nine Republicans are facing off to compete for the seat. Incumbents are running in the other eight seats, five of whom are unopposed.</p><p><strong>Washington</strong></p><p>* <strong>Senate</strong>: Five-term incumbent Sen. <strong>Patty Murray</strong> (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition.</p><p>* <strong>House</strong>: Incumbents are running in all 10 of Washington’s House seats. GOP Reps. <strong>Jaime Herrera Beutler</strong> and <strong>Dan Newhouse</strong> both voted to impeach former President Trump and have drawn his ire. He has endorsed opponents for both, but it is not clear who will prevail in either battle.</p><p>*In full disclosure, I was employed for five years by Congresswoman Hartzler.</p><p><strong>In Closing…</strong></p><p>I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!</p><p>—Eric</p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Get Smart Politics at <a href="https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe</a>
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