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Hot Not CRE

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by Hot Not CRE

5.0(1 reviews)

79 episodes

Updated Daily

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Podcast Overview

What's Hot & What's Not CRE is your daily briefing on commercial real estate trends across America. Each episode delivers a fast, data-driven breakdown of what's working — and what's not — in the CRE market. Covering multifamily, office, industrial, retail, data centers, hospitality, and capital markets, we cut through the noise to give you the insights that matter: vacancy rates, rent growth, cap rates, transaction volume, regional performance, and emerging opportunities. Whether you're an investor, broker, developer, lender, or just CRE-curious, this podcast keeps you informed in under

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Publishing Since

12/22/2025

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Recent Episodes

April 10, 2026

Episode 80: Friday Investor Outlook — Where Smart Money Is Moving

It's Friday, April 10th, 2026 — tracking where institutional and sophisticated capital is flowing right now. WHAT'S HOT:<ul><li>Multifamily dominance — now commands 24% of total CRE deal flow</li><li>Puget Sound apartments: $6 billion in Q1 transactions as institutions return</li><li>Industrial Outdoor Storage (IOS) — $900M+ deployed in 2025, $3B+ raised for 2026</li><li>Houston Ship Channel is ground zero for IOS boom</li><li>Senior housing surge — 16.2% of total CRE volume, a decade high</li><li>Data centers attracting massive capital on AI infrastructure demand</li><li>Q1 2026 U.S. CRE transaction volume: $66 billion — best start in 3 years</li><li>CBRE projects $562B for full-year 2026, up 16% YoY</li><li>Net-lease volume hit $51.4B in 2025 (+16% YoY), momentum continues</li><li>Southeast outperformed all regions — 26% increase in transaction dollar volume</li></ul><ul><li>Office distress deepens — $167B in office debt matures in 2026, another $123B in 2027</li><li>Office vacancy rates above 20% in major metros</li><li>Private credit under pressure — Q1 2026 redemptions hit -$7.5B</li><li>Morgan Stanley, Ares, Apollo all seeing 10-11% of NAV in outflows</li><li>Some funds gating; "extend and pretend" strategy cracking</li><li>The $875B wall — 17% of all outstanding commercial mortgages due this year</li><li>Property values down 30-40% from peak</li><li>$350B refinancing gap nationwide</li><li>Regional banks holding 70% of smaller loans feeling the squeeze</li><li>Walker & Dunlop $222M fraud case shaking private credit confidence</li></ul>WHAT'S NOT:WHY IT MATTERS:The bifurcation is real. Capital isn't returning to CRE broadly — it's returning to specific sectors with demographic tailwinds and supply constraints. Multifamily, industrial, senior housing, and data centers are absorbing the lion's share. Meanwhile, the debt maturity wall is forcing a reckoning. Private credit was supposed to fill the lending void, but redemption pressure is shaking confidence. The chain risk is clear: private credit stress flows to PE, flows to CRE, flows to regional banks.INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Smart money is playing offense in multifamily, IOS, senior housing, and data centers. They're playing defense everywhere else — especially office and anything dependent on refinancing at yesterday's values. The winners in 2026 will be those who bought quality assets with real cash flow, not those hoping for a rate-cut rescue. Flight to quality isn't a slogan anymore — it's the only strategy that's working.#CREInvesting #InstitutionalCapital #Multifamily #IndustrialOutdoorStorage #SeniorHousing #DataCenters #OfficeDistress #PrivateCredit #DebtMaturities #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CapitalFlows #FlightToQuality #PropertyInvesting #WhatsHotWhatsNot #FridayOutlook

April 9, 2026

Episode 79: Class B Multifamily — Limited Supply, Durable Demand

It's Thursday, April 9th, 2026 — breaking down A, B, and C class multifamily. Which segment looks strongest right now?WHAT'S HOT:<ul><li>Class B is the clear winner in 2026</li><li>Occupancy continues to outperform Class A in most markets</li><li>Demand for B and C apartments surging as renters seek affordable options</li><li>Rent premium between Class A and B/C has compressed</li><li>TruAmerica Multifamily closed $708 million workforce housing fund (February 2026)</li><li>Fannie and Freddie: $176 billion combined multifamily lending caps for 2026</li><li>Workforce housing loans exempt from GSE caps — structural advantage for Class B</li><li>Almost all new construction has been Class A — virtually no new Class B supply</li><li>Supply discipline translating into pricing power for Class B operators</li><li>Class C outperforming on rent growth — strong cash flow for hands-on investors</li></ul><ul><li>Class A struggling with oversupply</li><li>Four and five-star vacancy rates in double digits — especially Sun Belt</li><li>16.7% of stabilized apartments offering concessions (February 2026) — highest since mid-2014</li><li>Average concession discount hit 10.8%</li><li>Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Miami still working through substantial pipelines</li><li>Recovery is a 2027 story at earliest for Class A in oversupplied markets</li><li>Insurance costs per unit: $502 (2021) → $777 (2024)</li><li>Houston insurance rates exceed $1,200 per unit</li><li>Insurance now nearly 5% of multifamily revenue — up from under 2% in 2000</li><li>Expense pressure plus concessions compressing NOI fast for Class A</li></ul>WHAT'S NOT:WHY IT MATTERS:This is a flight to affordability. Barriers to homeownership continue to drive rental demand — but renters are trading down, not up. Class B offers the best balance of yield, risk, and tenant demand. Class A is fighting oversupply and concession wars. Class C delivers cash flow but requires operational intensity. The MBA projects an 18% increase in multifamily loan originations from 2025 to 2026. Capital is available — but lenders are selective. They're favoring stabilized Class B assets in supply-constrained markets. That's where the risk-adjusted returns are.INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Class B is the strongest segment in 2026. Limited new supply, durable tenant demand, and capital access make it the clear winner. Class A is the weakest — oversupply, concessions, and expense pressure are compressing returns. If you're deploying capital, target workforce housing in the Midwest and Northeast where supply discipline holds.#ClassBMultifamily #WorkforceHousing #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #ClassA #ClassC #RentGrowth #Occupancy #Concessions #AffordableHousing #RealEstateInvesting #MultifamilyInvesting #SupplyAndDemand #PropertyInvesting #WhatsHotWhatsNot

April 8, 2026

Episode 78: Treasury at 4.25% — Green Light for Selective Deployment

It's Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 — tracking the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for commercial real estate.WHAT'S HOT:<ul><li>10-Year Treasury eased to 4.25% — down 8 bps from yesterday's 4.33%</li><li>Sitting in the sweet spot — 4.0 to 4.25% range where cap rate spreads work</li><li>Agency CMBS spreads compressed ~15 bps in early 2026</li><li>Ginnie Mae 223f spreads at tightest levels since May 2022</li><li>Commercial mortgage rates starting at 5.36% as of April 7th</li><li>Low-leverage spreads tightening into 115-125 bps range</li><li>Banks easing underwriting standards for first time since 2022 rate hikes</li><li>Life insurance companies increasing allocations, actively seeking to place capital</li><li>Multifamily, industrial, grocery-anchored retail are favored asset classes</li><li>Q1 2026 transaction volume projected to exceed $66B — marginal improvement over Q1 2025</li><li>Office and Industrial emerged as pace leaders</li><li>Southeast outperformed all regions — 26% increase in transaction dollar volume</li></ul><ul><li>Rate cut expectations fading — Fed held at 3.5-3.75% for second consecutive meeting</li><li>CME FedWatch shows only 27.5% probability of December 2026 cut</li><li>JPMorgan forecasts no cuts in 2026 — possible hike in Q3 2027</li><li>Goldman Sachs expects two cuts, but they're in the minority</li><li>CPI core inflation projected at 3.1% year-end 2026; PCE core at 2.9%</li><li>Fed's 2% target still out of reach</li><li>Tariffs, fiscal deficits, elevated energy prices keeping upward pressure</li><li>$875B in CRE loans maturing in 2026 — refinancing pressure is real</li><li>Borrowers who financed at 3-4% now facing 6-8% refinancing rates</li><li>Bid-ask spreads still wide; deal velocity anemic in some sectors</li></ul>WHAT'S NOT:WHY IT MATTERS:The 10-year at 4.25% is constructive for CRE. Every 100 bps move in the 10-year translates to 41 bps of cap rate movement for industrial, 75 bps for multifamily, and 78 bps for retail. We're in a range where transactions can clear — but we need stability, not just a single-day move. The Fed projecting only one cut this year means rates stay higher for longer. Fiscal deficits exceeding 100% of GDP are putting structural upward pressure on yields. Don't expect sub-4% rates anytime soon.INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:The 10-year at 4.25% is a green light for selective deployment. Lock in financing while CMBS spreads are tight. Focus on multifamily, industrial, and necessity retail where lenders are competing. But underwrite conservatively — refinancing risk is real, and rate cuts aren't coming fast.#TreasuryYield #InterestRates #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #CMBS #CapRates #Multifamily #Industrial #Retail #FederalReserve #RealEstateFinance #CREInvesting #Refinancing #LendingConditions #DealFlow #PropertyInvesting #RealEstateMarket #WhatsHotWhatsNot

79 total episodes available

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What is Hot Not CRE?: What's Hot & What's Not CRE is your daily briefing on commercial real estate trends across America. Each episode delivers a fast, data-driven breakdown of what's working — and what's not — in the CRE market.

Covering multifamily, office, industrial, retail, data centers, hospitality, and capital markets, we cut through the noise to give you the insights that matter: vacancy rates, rent growth, cap rates, transaction volume, regional performance, and emerging opportunities.

Whether you're an investor, broker, developer, lender, or just CRE-curious, this podcast keeps you informed in under
How often does this podcast release new episodes?: This podcast updates daily.
Where can I listen to this podcast?: This podcast is available on 4 platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more. You can also use the RSS feed directly.
Does this podcast accept guests?: No, this podcast does not typically feature guests.

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