Bonus: Our Wrap-Up of The First Round of Brazil’s 2026 Elections
The results of the first round of Brazil’s 2026 election have been simultaneously surprising and predictable. Flávio Bolsonaro has secured an upset in the first round, coming in 2 percentage points ahead of the incumbent Lula. Beyond the presidential result, there have also been shock outcomes across the country in key gubernatorial and senate races.
Join us as we take a quick look at the results, muse on the vibes of the whole thing, and evaluate how are own working theories and predictions have played out.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com (https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1)
28 Sept 2026
Understanding Latin America’s Economic Wins and Woes w/ John Authers (#35)
Discussed:
* John’s introduction to Latin America via The Financial Times.
* Why the IBOVESPA was one of the best investments you could make in the early 2000s.
* By the way, John was a colleague of a former guest of this podcast, Richard Lapper, whose appearance you can listen to here (https://podgecaste.substack.com/p/29-demystifying-lula-w-richard-lapper).
* Foreign investment in Latin America has come a long way from investing in railways in Patagonia.
* Why Mexico has failed to achieve the same level of economic success as Brazil.
* "Poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States."
* Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) could have been a Chavez or a Lula. Which one was he ultimately?
* John’s views on prediction markets.
* Sorry to inform you, but unfortunately, we still need polls.
* How the 1549-1550 conclave was perhaps the first example of insider trading in prediction markets.
* Covering George Soros and “Black Wednesday".
* The case for Mexican macroeconomics combined with Brazilian microeconomics.
* The darks days of Maracanã stadium.
* And much more!
John’s books, ‘The Victim’s Fortunes’ and ‘The Fearful Rise of Markets’, are available here. (https://www.amazon.com/stores/John-Authers/author/B001KCX7NE)
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com (https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1)
24 Sept 2026
Will Flávio Bolsonaro Pull Off The Ultimate Upset? (#34)
Discussed:
* The Path to The Planalto #02 (https://podgecaste.substack.com/p/the-path-to-the-planalto-02). Read it now. (https://podgecaste.substack.com/p/the-path-to-the-planalto-02)
* Will ‘Tight Washout Theory’ survive?
* Key battlegrounds in Minas Gerais and São Paulo seem to be shifting in Flávio’s favor. Will it be enough to win?
* Evaluating the possibilities of a flip between the first and second rounds.
* Flávio’s effectiveness in on-the-ground campaigning.
* While Nikolas Ferreira shepherds the base, Flávio turns his attention to presenting a safe pair of hands
* Social media campaigning is a dying force in Brazilian politics.
* Less Twitter beefs; more polls.
* Podcasts are also irrelevant in politics. Except for this one, of course.
* Old Testament Lula makes a brief appearance on the campaign trail.
* The case against attributing wild events to election outcomes.
* Will there be a late September surprise?
* Lula heads to New York for the UN General Assembly.
* “It’s about Montes Claros, not Manhattan.”
* When Lula goes on Amanpour, to whom exactly is he speaking?
* Vying for the Rory Stewart endorsement.
* Exchanging shirts with Mamdani.
* Is there any chance of a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro before the first round?
* And much more!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com (https://podgecaste.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1)
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Apple Podcasts (US)
5.0 / 5
1 ratings
Spotify
5.0 / 5
2 ratings
Podcast Authority Score: 7 / 100
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