Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.
Prediction Market Movers
Claim This Podcastby Prediction News
36 episodes
Updated Daily
Accepts GuestsHas Sponsors
Podcast Overview
Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.
Language
🇺🇲
Publishing Since
9/4/2025
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Recent Episodes
July 15, 2026
How River Markets is Transforming Prediction Market Trading | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Oscar Levy, founder of River Markets, to discuss how his company is building prime brokerage infrastructure for prediction markets. Oscar explains why liquidity is fragmented across exchanges, how River Markets uses smart order routing to help traders find the best available prices, and why execution quality becomes increasingly important for professional and institutional traders. The conversation dives into multi-venue execution, machine learning for market mapping, slippage reduction, portfolio and risk management, and how River Markets approaches trading across major prediction market platforms. Oscar also explains how professional traders differ from recreational traders, why prediction market contracts require sophisticated execution tools, and how River Markets is designed to optimize trading across multiple exchanges. Chris and Oscar also discuss the future of prediction market infrastructure, the expanding landscape of CFTC-regulated exchanges, Y Combinator, and River Markets' roadmap for supporting additional trading venues and financial products. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com River Market https://www.rivermarkets.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Why fragmented exchanges and River Market? 3:30 - On River Market’s algorithm 4:30 - Protecting customers and resolutions 6:15 - Splitting prices and navigating volatility 8:45 - What strategies are used? 9:45 - Every trader has a process 10:30 - Underrated features of River Market 12:00 - On River Market's forecast models and patterns 14:45 - How safe is River market from disruptions? 15:45 - Risk management products 17:05 - Y-combinator experience 20:00 - Future plans for River Market #PredictionMarkets #RiverMarkets #OscarLevy #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #Trading #Finance #AlgorithmicTrading #MachineLearning #Fintech #CFTC #MarketStructure #Liquidity #PredictionNews
July 8, 2026
How Hunter Guo Built a Prediction Market Watchdog | Prediction Market Movers
Chris Gerlacher welcomes Hunter Guo, founder of Verdict HQ, on Prediction Market Movers to discuss Polymarket resolution risk and how a controversial MicroStrategy Bitcoin market led Hunter to build an independent watchdog for prediction market contracts. Hunter explains how Verdict HQ scores markets using six factors: time clarity, resolution source, outcome definitions, edge cases, and post-trade risk. The goal is to help traders identify contracts that may be difficult to resolve cleanly before they place a trade. The conversation covers ambiguous market wording, UMA voting, and examples from crypto, geopolitics, sports, and breaking news. Chris and Hunter also discuss which types of markets tend to be safer or riskier. They close by talking about the future of prediction markets, including AI-assisted analysis, community reputation features, and why clearer standards and independent oversight matter as the industry grows. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Crypto trading to prediction Markets 3:10 - Getting involved with trading on Polymarket 5:20 - Market resolution incident 11:05 - Launching Verdict 13:30 - Detecting market clarity 17:35 - Which markets are high risk? 20:35 - Upcoming features on Verdict #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #HunterGuo #PredictionMarketMovers #Crypto #Bitcoin #Blockchain #Kalshi #DeFi #UMA #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #Trading #CryptoTrading
July 6, 2026
Gaeten Dugas Exposes Spotify Streaming Fraud That Broke Kalshi Markets | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns. The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destined to win before unexpected market shifts, and how traders identified unusual U.S.-only streaming spikes tied to specific artists. They also discuss the broader implications for prediction markets, market integrity, regulation, and the CFTC, including the growing challenge of third-party manipulation, flawed resolution sources, and what exchanges like Kalshi may need to change moving forward. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Spotify stream market 3:15 - Timeline of issues 24:00 - Kalshi’s resolution 28:05 - Kalshi’s response 30:00 - Spotify’s updated figures 33:30 - How should Kalshi adjust? 36:30 - Cleaning up market resolution 38:45 - 3rd party manipulation #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Spotify #SpotifyStreams #MarketManipulation #Polymarket #Crypto #StreamingFraud #PredictionNews #Trading #CFTC #MarketIntegrity #MusicIndustry #ElectionMarkets
36 total episodes available
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- What is Prediction Market Movers?
- How often does this podcast release new episodes?
This podcast updates daily.
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