The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast.
With your host: Adam Lawrence
Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
Claim This Podcastby Adam Lawrence
147 episodes
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Podcast Overview
The UK's Premier Property, Business, Markets & Economics Podcast. With your host: Adam Lawrence
Language
🇺🇲
Publishing Since
12/23/2022
1 verified contact email on file for Propenomix with Adam Lawrence
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Recent Episodes
July 7, 2026
Land Value Tax: Reform or Raid? Burnham's Plan for UK Property
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Andy Burnham wants to tax the land under our feet. This week Adam works through the land value tax - the maths, the politics, and what it would really mean for the UK property market, landlords and house prices. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> There's £7.1 trillion of UK land value on the table, a compulsory purchase threat aimed at landlords, a possible re-engineering of capital gains tax, and an England that's on course to build just 56% of its housing target. Plus Chris Watkin's real-time data - 45.2% of homes leaving estate agents' books unsold - a Trump watch on the digital services tax, and swaps closing under the 4% handle.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>In this episode:</strong></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> (00:00) Workshop week & the big numbers of the week<br /> (07:00) Land value tax: does the maths add up?<br /> (11:00) Re-engineering capital gains tax?<br /> (14:00) Next workshop - JVs & M&A in Manchester<br /> (20:00) Trump watch: digital services tax vs tariffs<br /> (25:00) Social homes: 18k a year built, 90k needed<br /> (29:00) Reform or raid? Council tax & the north-south unfairness<br /> (33:00) Compulsory purchase: combat or collaboration?<br /> (37:00) Why the state still needs private landlords<br /> (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: unsold stock & the pricing gap<br /> (43:00) The macro blast: swaps under 4%, PMIs & prices<br /> (47:00) KCCO - sign-off</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>▶ Next workshop - PBW12, Manchester, Thursday 1 October:</strong> Join Adam and Rod for a full day on joint ventures and mergers & acquisitions - real-life case studies, how the deals were structured, how they got through the legals, and how to add value to your balance sheet quickly and sensibly. Book here: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.tinyurl.com/pbwoct26">https://www.tinyurl.com/pbwoct26</a> - or Google "Property Business Workshop 12".<br /> <br /> Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/"> https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/</a><br /> Follow Adam on LinkedIn: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/</a><br /> Watch on YouTube: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence">https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence</a><br /> More from Propenomix: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://propenomix.com/">https://propenomix.com/</a></p>
June 29, 2026
Will There Be an Election? Burnham, Bond Markets & UK Mortgage Rates │ Propenomix Live
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Kier's gone, Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite, and the bigger question for property isn't who runs the country - it's who runs the Treasury. This week Adam works through what a new chancellor means for UK mortgage rates, the housing market and your next move. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> There's an election question to settle first, a mortgage backbook converging on new lending rates, Chris Watkin's real-time market data on the withdrawal rate and pricing gap, and a land value tax that could reshape the whole game for a 710-unit portfolio. Plus Trump watch, the macro-scope on mortgage pricing, the "3% world" and the debt, and what Adam is actually buying at 65p in the pound right now.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>In this episode:</strong><br /> (00:00) Kemi's out, Burnham's in - framing the week<br /> (08:00) Will there be a general election? Runners and riders<br /> (24:00) The real question: who is the next chancellor?<br /> (34:00) Trump watch & the world economy<br /> (40:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: withdrawal rate & pricing gap<br /> (52:00) Mortgage backbook vs new lending<br /> (66:00) Inflation, the debt & the "3% world"<br /> (78:00) Land value tax: what half a percent really means<br /> (84:00) What Adam is buying right now<br /> (89:00) KCCO - sign-off</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>▶ Next workshop - PBW11, central London:</strong> Join Adam and Rod for a full day on due diligence - on deals, on JV partners, and on the diligence people will run on you. The only real chance to grab proper time with us. Grab a VIP dinner ticket while they last. <strong>Google "Property Business Workshop 11" or use the link in the show notes.</strong></p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/"> https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/</a><br /> Follow Adam on LinkedIn: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/</a><br /> Watch on YouTube: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href= "https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence">https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence</a><br /> More from Propenomix: <a class= "underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="https://propenomix.com/">https://propenomix.com/</a></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Workshop: <a href= "https://www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven">www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven</a> </p>
June 19, 2026
No Cuts Coming: The Rate Story Flips, and Why the Next Move Is a Hike
<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why.</strong></p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>Trump Watch</strong> - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil came down on hope value, not supply actually returning, and the physical damage to Hormuz is months of work away even if the politics cooperate. Plus an objective audit of the tariff regime: $264bn raised, the deficit untouched, $166bn ordered back out the door with a $23m-a-day interest penalty. Expensive is a better word than winning. And the framework break at the Fed under new chair Kevin Walsh, who wants to scrap forward guidance and the dot plot in favour of "strategic ambiguity."</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>The Real-Time Market</strong> - Chris Watkin's week 22 data, and the first of three independent datasets that all agree on the shape of the market: softening, selectively, not collapsing. Gross sales down 8.9% year on year and down in every single region, outer London off 18%, yet price per square foot still rose 1.7% in a month. Fewer homes selling, the ones that do achieving more per foot. The pounds-per-square-foot index that correlates 98% with the Land Registry, five months ahead.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>The Inflation Attitude Survey</strong> - Rarely covered, more revealing than half the official data. Median inflation expectations up to 5%, the year-ahead figure jumping to 4%, and 53% now expecting rates to rise. Why belief greases the outcome, and why the Bank fears the survey more than a weak GDP print.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>The Gilts and the MPC Call</strong> - The five-year closed at 4.375%, that 6% limited company money still stubbornly in place. Hugh Pill already voted for a hike last time, the first vote for higher rates in nearly three years. The curve now prices a base rate higher in a year than today. Adam gives a member-by-member breakdown of Thursday's vote and lands on 7-2, with 6-3 not far behind.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> No hype, no sensationalism. The turn is real, but it's a turn, not a screeching handbrake. Build your LTVs, your stress tests, and your fix-versus-tracker calls around the direction, not the exact date.</p> <hr class="border-border-200 border-t-0.5 my-3 mx-1.5" /> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>Part two</strong> covers the deep dive: four reports on the affordability wall and why building more won't fix it. Listen next.</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> <strong>Property Business Workshop</strong> - Central London, Wednesday 1st July. Real due diligence: on lenders, on JV partners, on deals, and the DD being run on you. Live exercise, no-holds-barred Q&A, VIP dinner. Tickets selling now: search "Property Business Workshop 11" or visit tinyurl.com/pbweleven</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Keep calm, listen to the Supplement, and carry on.</p>
147 total episodes available
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