Super-Macro Management

About Super-Macro Management

SuperMacro provides a summary of the most critical economic and financial news from the major regions, with insights into the impact on markets and policy. We take a detailed look at the fundamentals once a week, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments.

Publisher

Super-Macro Management

Category

business

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

1 Mar 2024

Latest episode

12 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

23 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   12 Oct 2026

   The Next Bond Rally Is One to Sell

   The US Treasury is buying back $4 to 6 billion of long dated bonds at a time, against $5.4 trillion outstanding and $900 billion of new issuance every year. Jonny calls it a pea shooter pointed at a battleship. Bonds made last week’s front cover of The Economist, a cover with a record of marking turns. When everyone is suddenly worried about the long end, where does it go next? The real test is the 4 November refunding. If the Treasury cancels the 20 year auction or trims the tens and thirties, the first reaction could be a rally, but the paper still has to go somewhere, and Jonny expects it to flood into bills and tie funding more tightly to the Fed. Add Judy Shelton and her proposal for gold backed Treasury bonds, and debasement fears are never far away. Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to unpack why a relief rally in long bonds is one to sell, what the Treasury could still do at the November refunding, and why he is buying gold upside while staying short the long bond. In this episode: Why the ten year and thirty year are consolidating, and the risk of a 6% handle on the long bond The Economist cover asking whether bonds will blow up, and oil at $10 a barrel in 1999 Why $4 to 6 billion buybacks barely dent $5.4 trillion of 10 to 30 year debt What the 4 November refunding could change, and why bills would absorb the difference Judy Shelton’s zero coupon Treasury bonds backed by gold, 261 million ounces at $42 an ounce Why nominal GDP outgrowing the interest rate cuts debt to GDP, and why low inflation is not coming back Zillow and Apartment List rents turning up, vacancies falling and mortgage rates at 7.5% Why he is buying gold upside and selling Treasuries into strength Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com 0:15 Welcome, and what Super Macro offers 0:41 Where the ten and 30 year yields stand after the sell-off 1:09 Bonds make the cover of The Economist 2:10 Why Jonny isn’t ready to buy bonds yet, and the risk of 6% on the long bond 2:34 Events that could squeeze bonds, starting with the Treasury buybacks 3:40 The maturity profile of the debt and the $5.4 trillion buyback target 4:44 The 4 November refunding announcement and what Treasury could do 6:24 Why cutting long end supply would be a chance to sell 7:06 Bill issuance, debasement fears and pressure on the Fed 8:31 The two new Treasury advisers 11:33 Judy Shelton and her plan for gold-backed Treasuries 12:33 The US gold stock, valued at $42 an ounce 14:09 How much power the advisers really have 14:50 Inflating away the debt with nominal GDP growth 15:58 Why the era of ultra low rates is over 16:43 Core inflation and the risk from rents 17:15 The rent indices that lead the CPI 18:25 Why rental disinflation is fading fast 20:26 Why Jonny is buying upside in gold and staying short Treasuries 21:05 Wrap up and what subscribers get in the Daily Note

2. 

   5 Oct 2026

   What Now for Bonds?

   France's deficit is heading for 5.4% this year, the government's plan to cut it to 5% is unlikely to survive the National Assembly, and a presidential election lands in April. French yields keep climbing, the two year Bund now yields 175 basis points less than Treasuries, and the VIX hasn't moved. The Nasdaq hit an all time high on Friday. Jonny called the ten year breaking through 4.5% months ago, and it has been a great year for his short. Now he has scaled back. Options protection has become expensive as the MOVE index surges, and with only about five basis points of a hike priced for November fed funds, he is leaving the October Fed meeting alone. Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to unpack why the French deficit is dragging Europe's bond markets lower, why Jonny has cut his Treasury short, and why equities still aren't flinching at higher yields. In this episode: France's 5.4% deficit, a reduction plan to 5% that is unlikely to pass, and an April presidential election with Le Pen and Melenchon leading Japanese yields rising fast enough to close the yield pickup that once sent JGB investors into Treasuries and European bonds Two year Bund yields falling 175 basis points below Treasuries as investors rush into the safe haven Why Jonny has scaled back his ten year short, and why a surging MOVE index makes options protection so expensive November fed funds pricing just five basis points of a hike, and why Jonny won't trade the October meeting Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth expected near 30%, and why the VIX has not moved Why hedge funds have a ton of information but not necessarily better information, and how Jonny forms his own views Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com 0:00 Cold open: are France's presidential candidates really extremists? 0:13 Welcome back, Elvis is fresh from Las Vegas 0:53 The ongoing bond sell-off and the rise in French yields 1:33 France's 5.4% deficit and an April presidential election 2:32 Why yields are rising: inflation, strong growth and second round risk 4:29 Japan's bond market and the vanishing yield pickup 5:14 Is Europe facing the same problem? 6:03 Why Jonny has scaled back his ten year Treasury short 7:55 Why options protection is so expensive: the MOVE index 8:31 Why the VIX hasn't moved 9:40 How Jonny holds up against hedge funds with more information 13:01 Jonny's Fed funds trade, and why he is sitting out October 15:38 Political risk in Europe and fears of a new sovereign debt crisis 16:58 Bunds as a safe haven, the 175 basis point spread and the euro 18:44 Why Jonny runs a low capital trading strategy 20:38 Equities: why stocks are shrugging off higher yields 22:11 How narrow the rally is, and the AI capex risk 23:13 Wrap up and what the Daily Note offers

3. 

   28 Sept 2026

   Get Used to a 5-Handle on Bonds

   The 30 year Treasury yield traded above 5.5% this morning. The 10 year is now clean through 5%, a level that held as a ceiling for two years. Whatever was capping yields broke last week, and Jonny doesn't think it's coming back. Behind the move sits a US economy still running hot. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate has Q3 growth tracking at 5%, powered by consumption growth above 3% and an AI-driven investment boom, with last week's S&P Global composite PMI printing its strongest read yet. The case for bonds staying cheap keeps getting harder to dismiss. Jonny walks through why the bond market's multi-year ceiling finally gave way, what a botched auction and a shrunken buyback programme reveal about real demand for Treasuries, and why he thinks the neutral rate of interest has reset permanently higher. In this episode: The 10 and 30 year yields breaking through levels that had capped them for two years A 5 year note auction with the biggest tail in almost five years and the lowest bid to cover since 2018 The Treasury's buyback operation managing just over $4 billion of face value against $5.4 trillion outstanding in the maturities it targets Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q3 growth at 5%, with consumption growth above 3% and investment spending on an AI-driven tear US federal debt to GDP above 120% once the Fed's own holdings are counted, and why the Fed itself is losing money on that stock Italy's BTP-Bund spread down from over 400 basis points in 2012 after cutting its deficit toward 3% of GDP, while France's OAT now yields more with its own deficit at 5.4% Why a strong labour market raises the risk that higher energy costs turn into second round wage and price effects Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com 0:00 Intro: why fiscal concerns finally start to matter 0:22 Welcome, and why last week was a great week to be bearish bonds 0:55 The multi-year ceiling on 10 and 30 year yields finally breaks 1:43 What actually drives bond yields, and the factors behind last week's move 2:53 Inflation, a healthy labour market, and the risk of second round effects 4:02 Why fiscal concerns matter once they start to matter 4:56 Italy's 2012 sovereign debt crisis and the BTP-Bund spread 5:55 France's 5.4% deficit and a gridlocked election 6:24 French bonds now yield more than Italian bonds 6:52 The US debt trajectory, and why the real debt to GDP ratio is over 120% 7:44 How the Fed's own balance sheet is losing money on its bond holdings 9:08 Retail sales, consumption growth, and a red hot AI investment boom 10:01 Breaking down the Atlanta Fed's 5% GDP tracking estimate 11:37 A surprisingly strong S&P Global PMI print 13:13 A brutal five year note auction, and the worst demand in years 15:37 Why Treasury's buyback operation fell short of even its own promise 17:42 The buyback in context: $4 billion against $5.4 trillion outstanding 19:12 The bottom line: the neutral rate of interest has reset higher

Reach and audience

Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.

YouTube views

5,160

Score snapshot 15 Sept 2025

Apple Podcasts (US)

5.0 / 5

1 ratings

Spotify

4.7 / 5

42 ratings

Podcast Authority Score: 46 / 100

A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.

Quality

50

Social presence

0

YouTube

74

Engagement

30

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Guest appearances

Books guests

Based on episode analysis; this does not confirm that the show is currently accepting guests.

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