ValueLetters
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Podcast Overview
<p>Welcome to ValueLetters, an AI-narrated journey through the greatest investment writings ever created. Each episode brings to life the timeless insights of legendary investors such as Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Peter Lynch, and Terry Smith. From letters and articles to written interviews and essays, we uncover the wisdom, context, and principles that have guided decades of success. Beyond these classic writings, I also share my own reflections and analyses, inspired by the same masters whose ideas continue to shape the world of value investing. Join me as we rediscover the art of thoughtful investing, one piece of writing at a time.</p>
Language
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Publishing Since
11/10/2025
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Recent Episodes
March 13, 2026
Bayes and Base Rates AI Forecasts and Probabilistic Thinking Mauboussin and Callahan 2026
<p>This extended audio podcast is based on the Morgan Stanley Consilient Observer report “Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future,” written by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan and published on February 10, 2026.</p><p>The report explores how investors can evaluate aggressive financial projections in the artificial intelligence sector using Bayesian reasoning and historical base rate data. Instead of relying solely on company specific narratives, the authors suggest starting with the statistical outcomes of similar companies over long periods of time and then updating those assumptions as new evidence emerges.</p><p>Using a dataset covering more than 75 years of U.S. public company history, the research shows that extremely rapid revenue growth at large scale is historically rare. As a result, some of the revenue expectations currently discussed for AI related businesses such as OpenAI or Oracle Cloud imply outcomes that have very low historical probability. </p><p>The report also examines the risks associated with massive infrastructure investment supporting the AI boom. Historical evidence from large project databases shows that fewer than ten percent of major infrastructure projects are completed both on time and within budget, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the global buildout of AI data centers and computing capacity. </p><p>In addition to financial forecasts and infrastructure risks, the analysis considers strategic motivations behind large AI spending announcements. Firms may commit to large capacity expansions as a preemptive competitive strategy designed to discourage potential entrants and strengthen their leadership position in emerging markets. </p><p>Ultimately, the report argues that investors should adopt a probabilistic mindset when evaluating transformative technologies. By combining historical base rates with Bayesian updating, analysts can better assess the uncertain but potentially transformative impact of the generative AI revolution.</p><p>📈 Topics Covered<br>• Bayesian analysis and probabilistic forecasting<br>• Why base rates matter when evaluating AI revenue projections<br>• Historical growth outcomes of U.S. public companies<br>• Infrastructure risks in large scale AI investment projects<br>• Strategic motives behind massive AI spending<br>• Applying probabilistic thinking to emerging technology markets</p><p>Source report<br>Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan<br>Bayes and Base Rates How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future<br>Morgan Stanley Consilient Observer<br>Publication date February 10 2026<br><a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_bayesandbaserates_ltr.pdf?1773434665395">https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_bayesandbaserates_ltr.pdf?1773434665395</a></p><p>Explore all ValueLetters playlists<br><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@ValueLetters/playlists">https://www.youtube.com/@ValueLetters/playlists</a></p><p>🔔 Subscribe to ValueLetters<br>Listen to extended audio podcasts based on leading investment research probabilistic thinking and long term analysis across technology markets and capital allocation.</p><p>#ArtificialIntelligence #GenerativeAI #BayesianAnalysis #BaseRates #MorganStanley #Mauboussin #TechnologyInvesting #AIInfrastructure #InvestmentResearch #ValueLetters</p><p><br></p><p><br></p>
December 26, 2025
US Alternative Asset Managers Growth Moats and Industry Outlook 2025: Video Edition
<p>This video is based on a Morningstar research report authored by Morningstar analysts and published as part of the Alternative Asset Manager Observer series in 2025. The audio provides a deeper and more detailed walkthrough of the structural forces shaping the US alternative asset management industry.The research describes the current environment as a golden era of growth for alternative managers, sharply contrasting with the challenges facing traditional active asset management. It focuses on elite firms such as Blackstone Apollo KKR and Brookfield, explaining how their economic moats are built on high switching costs specialized investment expertise and long duration capital commitments.A central theme of the report is the powerful demand tailwind coming from high net worth individuals and the potential expansion of private market strategies into retirement accounts. These trends could significantly broaden the capital base for alternative assets over the next decade and reinforce the dominance of scaled global platforms.Blackstone is highlighted as the leading industry pick due to its unmatched fundraising scale broad product diversification and ability to consistently launch new investment strategies across private equity credit real assets and insurance solutions. While the industry faces some fee compression and short term market volatility the emphasis on illiquid strategies and perpetual capital structures provides a more stable and resilient earnings profile than traditional retail focused funds.The report ultimately concludes that size diversification and platform depth will be decisive competitive advantages as investors increasingly seek non correlated returns and long term capital solutions.📈 Topics Covered• Why alternative asset managers are outperforming traditional firms• Economic moats built on switching costs and specialized expertise• Growth driven by high net worth investors and retirement capital• Competitive advantages of Blackstone Apollo KKR and Brookfield• Fee pressure versus earnings stability from perpetual capital• Why large diversified platforms are positioned to dominate long termSource reportMorningstar Alternative Asset Manager ObserverAuthors Morningstar Research AnalystsPublication date 2025https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/alternative-asset-manager-observer?utm_source=link&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshareExplore all ValueLetters playlistshttps://www.youtube.com/@ValueLetters/playlists🔔 Subscribe to ValueLettersWatch research driven videos based on leading investment papers market structure analysis and long term valuation thinking across public and private markets.#AlternativeAssets #AssetManagement #PrivateMarkets #Blackstone #Apollo #KKR #Brookfield #Morningstar #InvestmentResearch #CapitalAllocation #ValueLetters</p>
December 26, 2025
US Alternative Asset Managers Growth Moats and Industry Outlook 2025
<p>This extended audio edition is based on a Morningstar research report authored by Morningstar analysts and published as part of the Alternative Asset Manager Observer series in 2025. The audio provides a deeper and more detailed walkthrough of the structural forces shaping the US alternative asset management industry.The research describes the current environment as a golden era of growth for alternative managers, sharply contrasting with the challenges facing traditional active asset management. It focuses on elite firms such as Blackstone Apollo KKR and Brookfield, explaining how their economic moats are built on high switching costs specialized investment expertise and long duration capital commitments.A central theme of the report is the powerful demand tailwind coming from high net worth individuals and the potential expansion of private market strategies into retirement accounts. These trends could significantly broaden the capital base for alternative assets over the next decade and reinforce the dominance of scaled global platforms.Blackstone is highlighted as the leading industry pick due to its unmatched fundraising scale broad product diversification and ability to consistently launch new investment strategies across private equity credit real assets and insurance solutions. While the industry faces some fee compression and short term market volatility the emphasis on illiquid strategies and perpetual capital structures provides a more stable and resilient earnings profile than traditional retail focused funds.The report ultimately concludes that size diversification and platform depth will be decisive competitive advantages as investors increasingly seek non correlated returns and long term capital solutions.📈 Topics Covered• Why alternative asset managers are outperforming traditional firms• Economic moats built on switching costs and specialized expertise• Growth driven by high net worth investors and retirement capital• Competitive advantages of Blackstone Apollo KKR and Brookfield• Fee pressure versus earnings stability from perpetual capital• Why large diversified platforms are positioned to dominate long termSource reportMorningstar Alternative Asset Manager ObserverAuthors Morningstar Research AnalystsPublication date 2025https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/alternative-asset-manager-observer?utm_source=link&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshareExplore all ValueLetters playlistshttps://www.youtube.com/@ValueLetters/playlists🔔 Subscribe to ValueLettersWatch research driven videos based on leading investment papers market structure analysis and long term valuation thinking across public and private markets.#AlternativeAssets #AssetManagement #PrivateMarkets #Blackstone #Apollo #KKR #Brookfield #Morningstar #InvestmentResearch #CapitalAllocation #ValueLetters</p>
18 total episodes available
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Frequently asked questions
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- What is ValueLetters?
<p>Welcome to ValueLetters, an AI-narrated journey through the greatest investment writings ever created. Each episode brings to life the timeless insights of legendary investors such as Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Peter Lynch, and Terry Smith. From letters and articles to written interviews and essays, we uncover the wisdom, context, and principles that have guided decades of success. Beyond these classic writings, I also share my own reflections and analyses, inspired by the same masters whose ideas continue to shape the world of value investing. Join me as we rediscover the art of thoughtful investing, one piece of writing at a time.</p> - How often does this podcast release new episodes?
This podcast updates daily.
- Where can I listen to this podcast?
This podcast is available on 4 platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more. You can also use the RSS feed directly.
- Does this podcast accept guests?
Information about guest appearances is not available.
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