VoxTalks Economics
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<p>Learn about groundbreaking new research, commentary and policy ideas from the world's leading economists. Presented by Tim Phillips.</p>
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Publishing Since
7/18/2018
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Recent Episodes
July 31, 2026
S9 Ep45: Tariff Confusion
<div> <p>If you run a business that exports to the United States, how big is the tariff you have to pay? In 2025 that question was hard to answer. Between February and December, 53 separate announcements introduced, delayed, reinstated or changed US tariffs, with different countries and products pulled in or exempted each time.</p><p>Kalina Manova (UCL, CEPR) and her colleagues built a database of every one of those announcements, but they also measured the confusion that those announcements created. She tells Tim Phillips about how tariff confusion has become a second tax on trade, as confusion puts off exporters: but it's one that raises no revenue. </p><p>On average, uncertainty about the actual tariff doubled the damage done to trade by the tariff hikes themselves. For some countries it tripled it. Does this result mean that, if the US cleared up the confusion by not changing its tariffs regularly, it could double tariff income for the same impact on trade?</p><p>The research behind this episode:</p><p>Manova, Kalina, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson, and Aaron Tang. 2026. <a href="https://cepr.org/publications/dp21688">"Tariff Confusion."</a> CEPR Discussion Paper DP21688 (gated).</p><p>To cite this episode:</p><p>Phillips, Tim, and Kalina Manova. 2026. "Tariff Confusion." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).<br><strong><br>About the guest<br></strong><br><a href="https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/64670-kalina-manova">Kalina Manova</a> is Professor of Economics at University College London and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Her work spans global production networks and multinational activity, firm productivity and management, trade policy, and the financial frictions that shape international trade and investment. She holds an AB, AM and PhD from Harvard, and has previously held posts at Stanford, Princeton and Oxford.</p><p><strong>Research cited in this episode<br></strong><br><strong>US Tariff Announcement Database (USTAD).</strong> The dataset Manova and her co-authors assembled by hand from US presidential executive orders and proclamations, recording all 53 tariff announcements of 2025 and tracing, for roughly 230 origin countries and more than 18,000 ten-digit product categories, the statutory tariff in place each month.</p><p><strong>The four confusion measures.</strong> With no direct way to measure confusion, the paper proxies it four ways: the cumulative number of relevant announcements a firm had to track; the number of possible tariff calculations those announcements could produce (labelled tariff mess, defined as two to the power of the number of announcements); the highest tariff a firm might infer if it heard only the bad news (tariff max); and how far that worst case sits above the true statutory rate (tariff miss).</p><p><strong>The firm survey.</strong> A survey of roughly 4,500 firms in the US and Canada in March and April 2025 found that around 45% believed tariffs on Chinese goods were below 20%, when the true average was about 42%; at the same time, 87% underestimated how many announcements had postponed or rolled back tariffs. Firms were wrong in both directions at once.</p><p><strong>Trade policy uncertainty.</strong> A prior literature on uncertainty about future tariffs, which tends to find that firms delay forming trade relationships when the future is unclear. The paper’s contribution is to separate confusion about current tariffs from uncertainty about future ones, and to show the former bites on its own.</p><p><strong>Relationship-specific investment and trust.</strong> Trade in goods that require buyers and suppliers to customise to one another, or that sit in stickier supply relationships, proved more resilient to confusion; so did trade with countries whose populations report higher trust in foreigners. Informal trust, rather than formal contract enforcement, did the work of cushioning the shock.</p><p><strong>The IEEPA ruling.</strong> In February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed in 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. The paper's data stops before the ruling, which generated fresh policy change and, presumably, fresh confusion.</p><p><strong>More VoxTalks Economics episodes<br></strong><br><a href="https://cepr.org/multimedia/world-war-trade">World War Trade</a>. Richard Baldwin on how the April 2025 tariffs settled into a trade Cold War, and why the rest of the world kept trading without the US.</p><p><a href="https://cepr.org/multimedia/europe-middle">Europe in the Middle</a>. Pol Antrà s and Beata Javorcik on where redirected Chinese exports go when they can no longer sell in the US, and what that means for European firms and consumers.</p><p><a href="https://cepr.org/multimedia/how-exchange-rates-responded-tariffs">How exchange rates responded to tariffs</a>. Giancarlo Corsetti on why the dollar fell after Liberation Day when tariffs should, in theory, have pushed it the other way.</p><p><strong>Related reading on <a href="http://VoxEU.org">VoxEU.org</a><br></strong><br><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/trump-and-tariffs">Trump and Tariffs</a>, a VoxEU debate page collecting research on how the 2025 tariffs are reshaping supply chains, trade relationships and market stability.</p></div>
July 29, 2026
S9 Ep44: How superpowers shape trade
<div> <p>Recorded at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum, Paris School of Economics.</p><p>Tariffs move trade around, but so does economic power. When one economy dominates, other countries fall into step with it. They trade with the dominant economy, and also with each other. </p><p>Alberto Martin (Barcelona School of Economics, CEPR) is one of a team that has tracked the influence of hegemons, large dominant economies, on trade from the start of the 19th century. In our latest VoxTalk he tells Tim Phillips about how they used treaties (not necessarily about trade) as a proxy for alignment, and built a database of 77,000 of them signed between 1800 and 2020 to test their theory.</p><p>Hegemons sign a disproportionate share of these international agreements. After treaty-signing, trade links become stronger. But treaty-signing has fallen sharply over the past 15 years, as much as it did during the two world wars. If we are heading towards a multipolar world, might what will the absence of a global hegemony do to trade?</p><p>The research behind this episode:</p><p>Broner, Fernando, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, and Christoph Trebesch. 2025. <a href="https://cepr.org/publications/dp20339">"Hegemonic Globalization."</a> CEPR Discussion Paper 20339 (gated).</p><p>To cite this episode:</p><p>Phillips, Tim, and Alberto Martin. 2025. "How superpowers shape trade." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).<br><strong><br>About the guest<br></strong><br><a href="https://crei.cat/people/martin/">Alberto Martin</a> is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Research in International Economics (CREI), an Adjunct Professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, a Research Professor at the Barcelona School of Economics, and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, where he directs the International Macroeconomics and Finance programme. His research spans macroeconomics, finance, and international economics, including asset bubbles, credit cycles, sovereign debt, and the political economy of trade.</p><p><strong>Research cited in this episode<br></strong><br><strong>Global Treaty Database.</strong> The dataset at the heart of the paper, assembled by the authors from the United Nations Treaty Collection, the League of Nations archive, and country-specific historical sources. It records roughly 77,000 international agreements signed between 1800 and 2020, most of them bilateral, sorted into economic and non-economic categories such as trade, taxation, migration, borders, and military cooperation.</p><p><strong>Hegemonic stability.</strong> The idea, introduced by Charles Kindleberger in 1973, that an open and stable world economy needs a single dominant power to underwrite it. This paper builds a formal model of the mechanism Kindleberger described, and asks what happens to openness when dominance is contested.</p><p><strong>Alignment and UN voting.</strong> The most common existing proxy for how closely two countries are aligned is whether they vote together at the United Nations. The authors' treaty measure correlates with UN voting in some periods and less in others, partly because many UN votes turn on narrow questions; treaties cover more policy areas and reach back 200 years, which UN voting cannot.</p><p><strong>The recent decline in treaty-signing.</strong> Since 1800 treaty-signing has trended upward, interrupted by three sharp falls: the First World War, the Second World War, and a decline over the last 15 years that is proportionally comparable to the first two. The authors checked large-country sources directly to rule out a reporting lag, and the fall appears real.</p><p><strong>More VoxTalks Economics episodes<br></strong><br><a href="https://cepr.org/multimedia/safety-paradox">The safety paradox</a>. Isabelle Méjean on how, when countries impose trade restriction to protect themselves, it also makes conflict more likely. </p><p><strong>Related reading on <a href="http://VoxEU.org">VoxEU.org</a><br></strong><br><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/why-globalisation-needs-leader-hegemons-alignment-and-trade">Why globalisation needs a leader: Hegemons, alignment, and trade</a>, the authors' own VoxEU column setting out the theory of hegemonic globalisation and what a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world might mean for trade.</p><p><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/bilateralism-system-europes-early-trade-treaties-and-lessons-eu-trade-policy">From bilateralism to a system: Europe's early trade treaties and lessons for EU trade policy in a contested world</a>, a VoxEU column by Laura Panza and Maria Ptashkina drawing on nearly 900 commercial treaties from 1815 to 1919 to argue for expanding networks of agreements even without universal multilateralism.</p></div>
July 24, 2026
S9 Ep43: Navigating industrial policy
Host Tim Phillips interviews Zsóka Kóczán, Associate Director and Lead Economist at the EBRD, about the resurgence and effective implementation of industrial policies globally.
472 total episodes available with 57 transcripts
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- What is VoxTalks Economics?
<p>Learn about groundbreaking new research, commentary and policy ideas from the world's leading economists. Presented by Tim Phillips.</p> - How often does this podcast release new episodes?
This podcast updates daily.
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