Welcome to the Lucky or Good Podcast, where we explore lessons learned from outdoor & experiential education, applying safety science and storytelling to learn from our experiences.
This is a community of curiosity, humility, and learning -- not a space to shame, blame, or judge. Critical thinking is welcome, but we should be critical of the conditions that led to incidents, not the people caught up by those conditions.
In this episode, Tom Vogl shares a harrowing story of an enormous avalanche that narrowly missed his group of backcountry skiers in the North Cascades.
In this humble and vulnerable account, Tom reflects on how the events of the day unfolded, how plans changed, and the mindset they were in that may have contributed to the near-miss. As we explore the event, he moves on to how he has since learned and developed different habits and system approaches to be more risk-aware in the present.
Tom's story helps us understand many ways to convert lucky to good!
1 Sept 2026
Episode 12 - A Sea Kayaking Near-Miss (Stuart Slay)
In the world of outdoor education, success often teeters on the edge of luck and skill. What happens when we experience a near miss? How do we learn from those moments that could have ended in disaster? In this episode, we'll explore a compelling story shared by risk management consultant and coach, Stuart Slay. This account highlights the critical lessons learned from incidents in outdoor programs, emphasizing the importance of planning, accountability, safety leadership and reflective practices.
Were they lucky, or good?
14 Aug 2026
Episode 11 - Lesson From the Ice, Part II (Kate Koons)
Part II of our two part series with Kate Koons, talking about lessons learned from risk management in Antarctica and beyond. What has Kate learned from outdoor education, avalanche education, mental health training, and wilderness risk management that she has successfully adapted and applied to her field safety work in Antarctica? We also return to her story of a snowmobile incident from Part I and evaluate if they were lucky, or good.
Safety Science concepts include Safety Clutter, Systems Thinking, AcciMaps, and Psychological Safety, among others.
1 Aug 2026
Episode 10 - Lessons from the Ice, Part I (Kate Koons)
Guest: Kate Koons
In this episode, Kate Koons shares her risk management leadership experiences from Antarctica and beyond, highlighting the importance of psychological safety, planning, and communication in extreme environments.
Chapters
00:00 Kate's Journey as a Learner and Mentor
02:44 Incident in Antarctica: A Case Study
10:10 Response and Recovery: What Went Well
17:34 Graceful Extensibility Built Into the Design
19:04 Emergency versus Crisis
23:32 The Importance of Psychological Safety
30:09 Competing Priorities in Scientific Field Work
32:50 How do we perceive risk?
15 Jul 2026
Episode 9 - A Behavioral Incident, or an Organizational Incident? (Chris Bartram)
Guest: Chris Bartram
Outdoor Educator, Mountain Guide and Risk Management Consultant Chris Bartram revisits a challenging experience from early in his outdoor education career, struggling with group dynamics and threatening, disruptive behavior from a student. In revisiting the story, the conversation shifts from a simple story of blame, to a more complex story of organizational, administrative, and environmental factors that contributed to the group's challenges. Applying a systems-thinking lens, Chris explores deeper lessons learned from the event, and wraps up with focused advice for organizational leaders and managers to learn from his experience.
Chapters
00:00 Introductions
01:37 Student Behavioral Challenges
04:45 Group Dynamics
07:46 Behavior Management and Health Concerns
11:57 A Brief Change in Student Behavior...
12:56 Analysis of the Incident
22:31 Were we lucky, or good?
32:32 Advice - Listening to the Front Line Workers
33:33 Positive Capacities
1 Jul 2026
Episode 8 - The Costs, and Gifts, of Outdoor Incidents (Tracy Rekart)
Episode 8 - The Costs, and Gifts, of Outdoor Incidents (Tracy Rekart)
Guest: Tracy Rekart
Tracy Rekart (https://www.tracyrekart.com/) shares a powerful story of a climbing incident, lessons learned about risk, communication, and resilience. This episode explores how to handle failure, recognize biases, and pursue recovery after a critical incident occurs. Her story is filled with insights, clarity, courage, and vulnerability, all of which provide useful takeaways for outdoor & experiential educators.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest
01:12 Tracy's Climbing Incident: A Personal Story
09:00 Reflections on the Incident and Lessons Learned
12:55 Communication and Safety in Outdoor Education
17:09 The Aftermath: Recovery and Relationship Growth
19:39 A Dream of Healing
20:28 Finding a New Home and Life Choices
21:45 The Importance of Presence in Recovery
23:25 Learning from Vulnerability and Holding Space
24:43 Cognitive Biases in Outdoor Education
27:24 The Substitution Effect in Decision Making
30:26 FailSafe vs. Fail Safely
31:48 Excavating for Risks and Final Thoughts
Learn more about Tracy and her work at https://www.tracyrekart.com/ (https://www.tracyrekart.com/)
27 Jun 2026
Mini Episode #1 - Don't Mistake Outcomes for Process (Matt Baker-White)
Welcome to our first mini-episode, live from the lighthouse at Mukilteo, Washington State!
In this brief conversation, Matt Baker-White, an early adopter of our "Lucky or Good" approach, explains the difference between focusing on outcomes versus focusing on effective processes in his work at the Wild Rockies Field Institute (https://www.wrfi.net/).
15 Jun 2026
Episode 7 - Listening to Weak Signals
How Vulnerability and Listening to Weak Signals Can Save Lives: A Conversation with Gareth Lock
In this episode, Gareth Lock (from the Human Diver) shares a powerful personal story about a near-fatal cardiac event and explores how vulnerability, systems thinking, and recognizing weak signals can improve safety in outdoor and diving environments.
Key Topics:
Gareth’s personal experience with a critical cardiac event and key lessons learned
The importance of listening to weak signals and small cues in safety management
How vulnerability models foster a safety culture that encourages speaking up
The concept of local rationality and understanding decision-making in context
Contrasting linear risk analysis with holistic systems thinking approaches
The benefits of framing risk positively: beneficial risks and growth opportunities
Fail-safe design principles: creating resilient systems that recover gracefully
The role of cognitive biases like hindsight bias and ways to counteract them
Applying safety science concepts to outdoor education and adventure activities
The significance of language and shared vocabulary in safety conversations
Resources & Links:
Gareth Lock - The Human Diver (https://thehumandiver.com/)
1 Jun 2026
Episode 6- Failing Forward (Jaime Overmyer)
In the world of adaptive outdoor education, the balance between safety and adventure is tenuous. One common challenge that many organizations face is the fear of failure among staff, especially in high-consequence situations. In this post, we’ll explore insights shared by Jaime Overmeyer of the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center on how to transform the stigma of failure into a powerful tool for growth, confidence, and innovation. By creating a balance between clear policies with trust and flexibility for innovation, Jaime describes how she has built an organizational mindset of "failing forward" on the pathway of continuous improvement.
19 May 2026
Episode 5 - Five Steps Towards Climate Resilience (Shana Tarter)
SUMMARY
This episode explores the impact of climate change on outdoor and experiential education, emphasizing proactive risk management and organizational resilience. Guest Shana Tarter shares insights on adapting to climate threats, rethinking risk assessment, and implementing strategic planning to proactively manage risk and promote mission continuity.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest
01:36 The Opportunity to Be Good Rather than Lucky
02:17 Impact of Climate Change on Outdoor Programs
04:24 The Dichotomy of Luck and Good
05:43 Recognizing Slow-Moving Threats
07:41 Lessons from COVID-19 for Climate Adaptation
08:48 Mental Models and Sunk Cost Bias
10:24 Incentives for Change in Risk Management
12:59 Evolving Risk Assessment Models
14:30 Dynamic Risk Assessment in Climate Change
18:22 Collaboration in Decision-Making
20:12 Navigating the Yellow Zone of Risk
21:04 Proactive Approaches to Risk Management
23:56 Operational Resilience and Planning
26:04 Informed Consent and Communication
27:54 Moving from Lucky to Good
28:19 Final Thoughts and Action Steps
RESOURCES
Wilderness Climate Action Group - https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12345678/ (https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12345678/)
Journal Article: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/10806032241296526 (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/10806032241296526)
1 May 2026
Episode 4 - Avalanche Professional Gets Caught (Dan Veenhuizen)
Guest: Dan Veenhuizen
What happens when highly trained avalanche professionals get caught in an avalanche of their own?
What were the factors that set them up to fail, and what were the good habits and practices that helped to mitigate the impact?
Join us for a curious, humble examination of the lessons learned from this incident - and how we might apply these lessons in other aspects of our lives and outdoor adventures.
Were they lucky, or were they good?
Key Topics
Dan’s personal avalanche accident story and the sequence of events
How terrain configuration and wind slabs contributed to the avalanche
The importance of probabilistic hazard assessment and recognizing changing conditions
The role of heuristics such as social proof, confirmation bias, and familiarity in decision-making
Group dynamics and the influence of expert familiarity on safety judgments
Strategies for building safety routines: intentional checkpoints and debriefing
The value of modeling vulnerability and honest communication in safety culture
The shift in avalanche education from terrain to decision-making and group psychology
Concepts of fail safe vs. fail safe design in outdoor risk management
Continuous learning and promoting a culture of sharing near misses and mistakes
Resources & Links
The North American Avalanche Danger Scale (https://avalanche.org/avalanche-forecast/danger-scale/)
ICSP Conference (International Snow Science Workshop) (https://issw2023.org/)
Ian McCammon and Sarah Boilen's work on field debriefs (https://avalanche.org/)
Canadian Avalanche Association Curriculum (https://avalanche.org/)
Heuristics and Decision Making in the Context of Avalanche Safety (https://www.avalanche.org/)
10 Apr 2026
Episode 3 - Snow Shelter Collapses on School Group (Deb Ajango)
What happens when a seemingly benign activity, one that has been done many times before, drifts into riskier terrain than usual? And how do some decisions and factors that occurred earlier on the program amplify the impact of this unexpected event?
Join outdoor risk consultant and author Deb Ajango, who shares the story of an incident she was brought in to review with a school that experienced a snow shelter (quinzhee) collapse on some of their participants.
What role did luck and other factors play in this unfortunate event?
8 Apr 2026
Episode 2 - Reframing Success in Outdoor Education (Norm Eckman)
In this episode, Norm Eckman shares his evolution in outdoor education, emphasizing the importance of focusing on what instructors can control—structure, presence, supervision, and involvement—to evaluate course success and prevent burnout. The discussion explores safety models, organizational learning, and the continuous pursuit of improvement in outdoor programs.
See other episodes and share your story at www.luckyorgoodpodcast.com (http://www.luckyorgoodpodcast.com)
7 Apr 2026
Episode 1 - Overcoming Fear on the Colchuck Glacier (Tamara Walker)
Guest: Tamara Walker
A climber's terrifying solo climb down steep ice, and what she learned from this experience.
Discover a deeply personal story of mountain climbing that explores the interplay of luck, skill, and psychological resilience.
This episode offers valuable insights into managing fear, decision-making under pressure, and how past experiences shape our responses in high-stakes environments.
Was she lucky, or was she good?
Reach and audience
Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.
Apple Podcasts (US)
5.0 / 5
4 ratings
Spotify
5.0 / 5
1 ratings
Contact Were We Lucky, or Were We Good?
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