AXRP (pronounced axe-urp) is the AI X-risk Research Podcast where I, Daniel Filan, have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper, and hopefully get a sense of why it's been written and how it might reduce the risk of AI causing an existential catastrophe: that is, permanently and drastically curtailing humanity's future potential. You can visit the website and read transcripts at axrp.net.
AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Claim This Podcastby Daniel Filan
4.8(34 reviews)
63 episodes
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Podcast Overview
AXRP (pronounced axe-urp) is the AI X-risk Research Podcast where I, Daniel Filan, have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper, and hopefully get a sense of why it's been written and how it might reduce the risk of AI causing an existential catastrophe: that is, permanently and drastically curtailing humanity's future potential. You can visit the website and read transcripts at axrp.net.
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Publishing Since
12/11/2020
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Recent Episodes
February 18, 2026
49 - Caspar Oesterheld on Program Equilibrium
Caspar Oesterheld explores program equilibria within game theory, where computer programs analyze each other's code, discussing the robustness of these equilibria in this interview.
February 15, 2026
48 - Guive Assadi on AI Property Rights
<p>In this episode, Guive Assadi argues that we should give AIs property rights, so that they are integrated in our system of property and come to rely on it. The claim is that this means that AIs would not kill or steal from humans, because that would undermine the whole property system, which would be extremely valuable to them.</p> <p>Patreon: <a href= "https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast">https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast</a></p> <p>Ko-fi: <a href= "https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast">https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast</a></p> <p>Transcript: <a href= "https://axrp.net/episode/2026/02/15/episode-48-guive-assadi-ai-property-rights.html"> https://axrp.net/episode/2026/02/15/episode-48-guive-assadi-ai-property-rights.html</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Topics we discuss, and timestamps:</p> <p>0:00:28 AI property rights</p> <p>0:08:01 Why not steal from and kill humans</p> <p>0:15:25 Why AIs may fear it could be them next</p> <p>0:20:56 AI retirement</p> <p>0:23:28 Could humans be upgraded to stay useful?</p> <p>0:26:41 Will AI progress continue?</p> <p>0:30:00 Why non-obsoletable AIs may still not end human property rights</p> <p>0:38:35 Why make AIs with property rights?</p> <p>0:48:01 Do property rights incentivize alignment?</p> <p>0:50:09 Humans and non-human property rights</p> <p>1:02:18 Humans and non-human bodily autonomy</p> <p>1:16:59 Step changes in coordination ability</p> <p>1:24:39 Acausal coordination</p> <p>1:32:37 AI, humans, and civilizations with different technology levels</p> <p>1:41:39 The case of British settlers and Tasmanians</p> <p>1:47:22 Non-total expropriation</p> <p>1:53:47 How Guive thinks x-risk could happen, and other loose ends</p> <p>2:03:46 Following Guive's work</p> <p> </p> <p>Guive on Substack: <a href= "https://guive.substack.com/">https://guive.substack.com/</a></p> <p>Guive on X/Twitter: <a href= "https://x.com/GuiveAssadi">https://x.com/GuiveAssadi</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Research we discuss:</p> <p>The Case for AI Property Rights: <a href= "https://guive.substack.com/p/the-case-for-ai-property-rights">https://guive.substack.com/p/the-case-for-ai-property-rights</a></p> <p>AXRP Episode 44 - Peter Salib on AI Rights for Human Safety: <a href= "https://axrp.net/episode/2025/06/28/episode-44-peter-salib-ai-rights-human-safety.html"> https://axrp.net/episode/2025/06/28/episode-44-peter-salib-ai-rights-human-safety.html</a></p> <p>AI Rights for Human Safety (by Salib and Goldstein): <a href= "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4913167">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4913167</a></p> <p>We don't trade with ants: <a href= "https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/we-dont-trade-with-ants"> https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/we-dont-trade-with-ants</a></p> <p>Alignment Fine-tuning is Character Writing (on Claude as a techy philosophy SF-dwelling type): <a href= "https://guive.substack.com/p/alignment-fine-tuning-is-character">https://guive.substack.com/p/alignment-fine-tuning-is-character</a></p> <p>Claude's charater (Anthropic post on character training): <a href= "https://www.anthropic.com/research/claude-character">https://www.anthropic.com/research/claude-character</a></p> <p>Git Re-Basin: Merging Models modulo Permutation Symmetries: <a href= "https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.04836">https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.04836</a></p> <p>The Filan Cabinet: Caspar Oesterheld on Evidential Cooperation in Large Worlds: <a href= "https://thefilancabinet.com/episodes/2025/08/03/caspar-oesterheld-on-evidential-cooperation-in-large-worlds-ecl.html"> https://thefilancabinet.com/episodes/2025/08/03/caspar-oesterheld-on-evidential-cooperation-in-large-worlds-ecl.html</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Episode art by Hamish Doodles: <a href= "https://hamishdoodles.com/">hamishdoodles.com</a></p>
January 2, 2026
47 - David Rein on METR Time Horizons
<p>When METR says something like "Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% time horizon of 4 hours and 50 minutes", what does that mean? In this episode David Rein, METR researcher and co-author of the paper "Measuring AI ability to complete long tasks", talks about METR's work on measuring time horizons, the methodology behind those numbers, and what work remains to be done in this domain.</p> <p>Patreon: <a href= "https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast">https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast</a></p> <p>Ko-fi: <a href= "https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast">https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast</a></p> <p>Transcript: <a href= "https://axrp.net/episode/2026/01/03/episode-47-david-rein-metr-time-horizons.html"> https://axrp.net/episode/2026/01/03/episode-47-david-rein-metr-time-horizons.html</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Topics we discuss, and timestamps:</p> <p>0:00:32 Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks</p> <p>0:10:54 The meaning of "task length"</p> <p>0:19:27 Examples of intermediate and hard tasks</p> <p>0:25:12 Why the software engineering focus</p> <p>0:32:17 Why task length as difficulty measure</p> <p>0:46:32 Is AI progress going superexponential?</p> <p>0:50:58 Is AI progress due to increased cost to run models?</p> <p>0:54:45 Why METR measures model capabilities</p> <p>1:04:10 How time horizons relate to recursive self-improvement</p> <p>1:12:58 Cost of estimating time horizons</p> <p>1:16:23 Task realism vs mimicking important task features</p> <p>1:19:50 Excursus on "Inventing Temperature"</p> <p>1:25:46 Return to task realism discussion</p> <p>1:33:53 Open questions on time horizons</p> <p> </p> <p>Links for METR:</p> <p>Main website: <a href= "https://metr.org/">https://metr.org/</a></p> <p>X/Twitter account: <a href= "https://x.com/METR_Evals/">https://x.com/METR_Evals/</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Research we discuss:</p> <p>Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks: <a href= "https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499">https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499</a></p> <p>RE-Bench: Evaluating frontier AI R&D capabilities of language model agents against human experts: <a href= "https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.15114">https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.15114</a></p> <p>HCAST: Human-Calibrated Autonomy Software Tasks: <a href= "https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.17354">https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.17354</a></p> <p>Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity: <a href= "https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089">https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089</a></p> <p>Anthropic Economic Index: Tracking AI's role in the US and global economy: <a href= "https://www.anthropic.com/research/anthropic-economic-index-september-2025-report"> https://www.anthropic.com/research/anthropic-economic-index-september-2025-report</a></p> <p>Bridging RL Theory and Practice with the Effective Horizon (i.e. the Cassidy Laidlaw paper): <a href= "https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.09853">https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.09853</a></p> <p>How Does Time Horizon Vary Across Domains?: <a href= "https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains/"> https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon-vary-across-domains/</a></p> <p>Inventing Temperature: <a href= "https://global.oup.com/academic/product/inventing-temperature-9780195337389"> https://global.oup.com/academic/product/inventing-temperature-9780195337389</a></p> <p>Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents? (by Toby Ord): <a href= "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/half-life">https://www.tobyord.com/writing/half-life</a></p> <p>Lawrence Chan's response to the above: <a href= "https://nitter.net/justanotherlaw/status/1920254586771710009">https://nitter.net/justanotherlaw/status/1920254586771710009</a></p> <p>AI Task Length Horizons in Offensive Cybersecurity: <a href= "https://sean-peters-au.github.io/2025/07/02/ai-task-length-horizons-in-offensive-cybersecurity.html"> https://sean-peters-au.github.io/2025/07/02/ai-task-length-horizons-in-offensive-cybersecurity.html</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Episode art by Hamish Doodles: <a href= "https://hamishdoodles.com/">hamishdoodles.com</a></p>
63 total episodes available with 10 transcripts
Recent guests on AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Guests from recent episodes — sign up to see every guest that has ever appeared on this show.
Caspar Oesterheld
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Samuel Albanie
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Peter Salib
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David Lindner
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Owain Evans
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Lee Sharkey
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