美轮美换 The American Roulette
Hosted by Haolan Wang and Xiao Hua and Talich · Baihua Media
4.6from 84 ratings
- 99
- Episodes
- 84
- Ratings
- Weekly
- Cadence
- 2023
- First episode
About 美轮美换 The American Roulette
一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客
- Publisher
- Baihua Media
- Category
- news
- Language
- zh
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- No
- First episode
- 29 Aug 2023
- Latest episode
- 23 Sept 2026
Latest episodes
99 episodes in the feed.
23 Sept 2026
094 | 民调里的蓝色海啸，能冲出多少席位？
【聊了什么】 距离美国中期选举越来越近，生活成本、伊朗战争和选民对特朗普的不满，让民主党的全国民调看起来一片大好。但民调里的“蓝色海啸”，究竟能冲出多少席位？重新划分的选区、各州不同的候选人，以及那些看似打成平手的内部民调，都在提醒我们：全国领先，不等于处处能赢。 本期我们从众议院与参议院的选情，聊到共和党的中期选举大会、费特曼的亮相，以及邮寄选票和重新划区之争。节目最后转向 AI：原本主要发生在科技圈内的安全争论，正与各地对数据中心的反对交汇，进入中期选举的政治议程。越来越多人要求 AI“慢下来”，但要把这些不同的担忧变成有效监管，仍然困难重重。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目，欢迎加入会员计划，支持我们继续做下去： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ (https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/) 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:36 (#t=00:36) 中期选举临近：生活成本、战争与选民情绪 03:42 (#t=03:42) 民主党民调领先：浪潮还是海啸？ 14:44 (#t=14:44) 全国领先，为什么未必能换来更多席位 20:26 (#t=20:26) 偏蓝州的选情为什么仍有悬念 27:45 (#t=27:45) 内部民调为何总显示“五五开” 29:30 (#t=29:30) 农业州的成本压力与德州候选人争议 34:25 (#t=34:25) 共和党的中期选举大会与特朗普的算盘 39:12 (#t=39:12) 费特曼为何出现在共和党大会 43:54 (#t=43:54) 共和党筹款优势为何难以变成选战优势 49:15 (#t=49:15) 邮寄选票争议 52:31 (#t=52:31) 密苏里选区重划 56:14 (#t=56:14) AI 安全争论：谁希望技术慢下来 1:03:01 (#t=1:03:01) 数据中心反对派和安全派合流 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【What We Talked About】 As the U.S. midterms draw closer, the cost of living, the war with Iran, and voter dissatisfaction with Trump have put Democrats in a strong position in national polls. But how many seats can this “blue tsunami” in the polls actually deliver? Redrawn districts, differences among candidates, and internal polls showing surprisingly close races all point to the same caution: a national lead does not mean Democrats will win everywhere. In this episode, we discuss the House and Senate races, the Republicans’ midterm convention, and John Fetterman’s appearance at the event. We also look at disputes over mail-in ballots and redistricting. Finally, we turn to AI: once a niche issue, concerns about safety and data center construction are becoming part of midterm politics. The debate has gone mainstream, but regulation that could meaningfully slow AI still seems a long way off. 【Support Us】 Support the show by joining our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ (https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/) Business inquiries and listener mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:36 (#t=00:36) The midterms approach: living costs, war, and voter sentiment 03:42 (#t=03:42) Democrats lead in the polls: a blue wave or a blue tsunami? 14:44 (#t=14:44) Why a national lead may not translate into more seats 20:26 (#t=20:26) Why races in blue-leaning states remain uncertain 27:45 (#t=27:45) Why internal polls so often show a dead heat 29:30 (#t=29:30) Rising costs in agricultural states and a candidate controversy in Texas 34:25 (#t=34:25) The Republican midterm convention and Trump’s strategy 39:12 (#t=39:12) Why Fetterman appeared at the Republican convention 43:54 (#t=43:54) Why Republicans’ fundraising edge may not become an electoral edge 49:15 (#t=49:15) The dispute over mail-in ballots 52:31 (#t=52:31) Redistricting in Missouri 56:14 (#t=56:14) The AI safety debate: who wants to slow things down? 1:03:01 (#t=1:03:01) Where data center opponents and AI safety advocates converge 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【相关链接 The Links】 CBS News 2026 中期选举民调与众议院席位模型 (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-battleground-tracker-house-control-2026-midterm-elections/) Cook Political Report：37 个竞争激烈选区的民调 (https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/new-battleground-district-poll-shows) The Texas Tribune：Bo French 的言论引发德州共和党内部反对 (https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/17/john-cornyn-bo-french-texas-railroad-commission-racist-post/) 费特曼在共和党中期选举大会上的视频 (https://www.foxnews.com/video/6404844789112) 联邦选举委员会：最高法院取消政党与候选人协调支出的上限 (https://www.fec.gov/updates/supreme-court-issues-opinion-in-national-republican-senatorial-committee-et-al-v-fec-et-al/) 最高法院：政党协调投放电视广告的价格争议 (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/26a274_l537.pdf) 最高法院：邮寄选票与 USPS 新规则案 (https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26a305.html) 密苏里州最高法院：选区地图与公投判决 (https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/Elections/Petitions/2026-R004WebCert.pdf) 密苏里选区案的后续进展：联邦上诉法院作出相反裁决，争议尚未结束 (https://apnews.com/article/redistricting-congress-trump-missouri-gerrymandering-0481d2b8ac0fb5369513bf050dd5b5e2) OpenAI：模型评估期间发生的 Hugging Face 安全事件 (https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead/) Dario Amodei：为什么主张放慢前沿 AI 的发展速度 (https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier) Pew Research Center：美国公众对本地数据中心的态度 (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/09/22/americans-views-of-data-centers-have-turned-more-negative/) 奥巴马在 Colgate University 谈 AI 安全、商业压力与政府监管（完整文字稿） (https://barackobama.medium.com/my-conversation-at-colgate-university-6d4e21b312d3)
8 Sept 2026
093 | 在纽约，用资本主义建设社会主义 On Abundance
【聊了什么】 长岛市的新楼一栋接一栋，纽约的房租为什么还是让人住不起？冻结房租，究竟保护了谁，又把谁留在了门外？本期，我们与城市规划师、播客《城市传说 Urban Myths》 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/69bd478503567230f76ecdf1)主播 罗雨翔在纽约长岛市线下录制，从身边的租房经历出发，聊纽约的住房危机，以及马姆达尼的住房承诺如何落地。 我们从纽约的租金稳定制度聊到房东的财产权、租客之间的不平等，以及近年引发美国自由派争论的“丰饶主义”（Abundance）。当住房、交通和公共设施都不够用，政府应该怎样增加供给？为什么一些支持“住房是人权”的人，却反对在自家附近多建几套房子？那些原本为了保护居民、环境和弱势群体而设立的规则，又如何成为建设的障碍？ 我们也讨论纽约实际把事情做成的办法：City of Yes 如何为建房松绑，经济发展公司 EDC 如何连接政府与私人资本，马姆达尼如何在左翼理想与治理现实之间周旋。从长岛市的重新规划，到 Gowanus 的改造与居民监督，看纽约市怎样才能把东西建起来，并让居民分享建设带来的好处。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 欢迎加入我们的会员计划 (https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/)。 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00 长岛市：新楼越建越多，房租为什么还在涨 10:45 纽约住房危机与马姆达尼的租金冻结 18:52 冻结房租，谁受益、谁承担成本 26:11 租金管制、房东财产权与政府补偿 39:02 丰饶主义：从补贴转向增加供给 43:38 支持住房是人权，却反对建在自家旁边 50:21 City of Yes：让纽约对建房多说“可以” 1:01:27 泳池、公路与铁路：公共设施背后的种族历史 1:09:00 EDC：纽约政府怎样与私人资本合作 1:15:59 马姆达尼、Lina Khan 与纽约的政治平衡 1:24:53 长岛市重新规划：工业区如何变成住宅区 1:27:37 Gowanus：污染运河旁的新社区 1:32:49 社区承诺：既要建房，也要居民监督 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，纽约诉讼律师 小华：媒体人 罗雨翔：城市规划师，播客《城市传说 Urban Myths》 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/69bd478503567230f76ecdf1)主播 【What We Talked About】 New buildings keep going up in Long Island City—so why is New York’s rent still out of reach? Who does a rent freeze protect, and who gets left out? In this episode, recorded in person in Long Island City, we sit down with urban planner Yuxiang Luo, host of Urban Myths (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/69bd478503567230f76ecdf1). Starting with our own experiences renting in the city, we explore New York’s housing crisis and what it would take to turn Mamdani’s housing promises into reality. Our conversation spans New York’s rent stabilization system, landlords’ property rights, inequalities among tenants, and “Abundance,” an agenda that has sparked debate among American liberals in recent years. When housing, transit, and public infrastructure fall short, how should the government expand supply? Why do some people who believe “housing is a human right” oppose building more homes in their own neighborhoods? And how have rules originally designed to protect residents, the environment, and vulnerable communities become barriers to construction? We also look at how New York gets things done: how City of Yes opens the door to more housing, how the New York City Economic Development Corporation (EDC) connects government with private capital, and how Mamdani navigates the tension between left-wing ideals and the realities of governing. From Long Island City’s rezoning to redevelopment and resident oversight in Gowanus, we ask how New York can get things built—and ensure residents share in the benefits. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program (https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/). Support us on Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette). Business inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00 Long Island City: Why Are Rents Still Rising as New Buildings Go Up? 10:45 New York’s Housing Crisis and Mamdani’s Rent Freeze 18:52 Who Benefits from a Rent Freeze—and Who Pays? 26:11 Rent Control, Landlords’ Property Rights, and Government Compensation 39:02 Abundance: From Subsidies to Expanding Supply 43:38 Housing Is a Human Right—but Not in My Backyard 50:21 City of Yes: Making It Easier to Build Housing in New York 1:01:27 Pools, Highways, and Railroads: The Racial History of Public Infrastructure 1:09:00 EDC: How New York City Government Works with Private Capital 1:15:59 Mamdani, Lina Khan, and New York’s Political Balancing Act 1:24:53 Rezoning Long Island City: From Industrial District to Residential Neighborhood 1:27:37 Gowanus: A New Neighborhood Along a Polluted Canal 1:32:49 Community Commitments: Building Housing with Resident Oversight 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our hosts and guest: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Lokin: Lawyer 罗雨翔 (Luo Yuxiang): Urban planner; host of 城市传说 Urban Myths (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/69bd478503567230f76ecdf1) 【The Links】 Ezra Klein、Derek Thompson：《Abundance》 (https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488) Reading Abundance from China：《疲惫娇娃》与《美轮美换》联合读书会英文摘编 (https://afraw.substack.com/p/reading-abundance-from-china) 美轮美换往期：纽约折叠，一座社区花园的死与生 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/694c70f469d0e0e9a73b8fd1) 纽约州住房部门：什么是租金稳定与租金管制 (https://hcr.ny.gov/rent-stabilization-and-emergency-tenant-protection-act) 纽约市租金指导委员会：租金调整规则与历年决议 (https://rentguidelinesboard.cityofnewyork.us/rent-guidelines/) American Economic Review：租金管制如何影响租客、房东与住房供给，来自旧金山的证据 (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181289) City of Yes for Housing Opportunity：纽约的住房分区改革 (https://council.nyc.gov/land-use/plans/city-of-yes-for-housing-opportunity/) 纽约市经济发展公司 NYCEDC (https://edc.nyc/) Lina Khan：《Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox》，亚马逊的反垄断悖论 (https://yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox) OneLIC：长岛市重新规划、可负担住房与社区投资 (https://council.nyc.gov/press/2025/10/29/3000/) Gowanus Oversight Task Force：56 项社区承诺的落实与居民监督 (https://gowanustaskforce.net/commitments) 纽约新泽西港务局：拉瓜迪亚机场公共交通方案评估报告 (https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/port-authority/press-room/press-kits/lga-mass-transit/2023-03-13-Full-Report%2BExecutive-Summary.pdf)
23 Aug 2026
092 | 中期选举初选：特朗普背书破功，民主党现任失守 Midterm Primary Results
【聊了什么】 2026年中期选举初选进入尾声，两党的结果已经打破了不少看似稳固的判断。特朗普仍然牢牢影响共和党，但他亲自背书的候选人在多场关键初选中接连落败；民主党则有七名现任众议员倒在党内挑战者手下。特朗普的背书在哪些地方仍然有效？现任优势又为什么正在民主党内部失灵？ 本期我们从密歇根、威斯康星和明尼苏达的选举结果谈起，讨论民主党建制派、进步派与民主社会主义者围绕“可当选性”、巴以议题、族裔代表和党内资源展开的路线之争。我们也分析了初选民调为什么会大幅失准：投票人群的构成、最后时刻的势头、竞选资金与组织能力，怎样让看似稳固的领先在投票日突然消失。 我们也讨论了可能决定参议院控制权的大选地图：德州、密歇根、缅因、俄亥俄、阿拉斯加、佐治亚、北卡和爱荷华，哪些是真正可能翻盘的战场，哪些只有在浪潮选举中才会出现意外？2026年的中期选举不只是红蓝之间的较量，也是两党内部关于谁能代表自己、谁能真正赢下大选的争夺。 本期节目录制于8月16日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ (https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/) 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:35 (#t=00:35) 开场：进入2026年中期选举初选盘点 05:11 (#t=05:11) 特朗普背书破功，共和党掌控力出现松动 12:23 (#t=12:23) 七名民主党现任众议员为何输掉党内初选 19:10 (#t=19:10) 密歇根与威斯康星：进步派、建制派与“可当选性” 40:24 (#t=40:24) 明尼苏达与民主社会主义者的扩张 43:16 (#t=43:16) 初选民调为什么接连失准 48:24 (#t=48:24) 德州与密歇根：参议院争夺的两种难题 55:31 (#t=55:31) 缅因州：Susan Collins 还能守住席位吗 58:37 (#t=58:37) 俄亥俄州：Sherrod Brown 的翻盘机会 1:06:00 (#t=1:06:00) 阿拉斯加：同名候选人与排序复选的变量 1:12:16 (#t=1:12:16) 佐治亚与北卡：民主党为什么领先稳固 1:16:53 (#t=1:16:53) 爱荷华：地方议题能否撬动红州 1:22:13 (#t=1:22:13) 蒙大拿、内布拉斯加与堪萨斯的冷门可能 1:25:54 (#t=1:25:54) Fetterman 与参议院控制权的关键一票 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 The 2026 midterms have not yet entered their final stretch, but the party primaries have already upended several assumptions that once seemed settled. Donald Trump still holds considerable sway over the Republican Party, yet several candidates he personally endorsed have lost key primaries. Meanwhile, seven incumbent House Democrats were defeated by challengers from within their own party. Where does Trump’s endorsement still carry weight? And why is the advantage of incumbency breaking down among Democrats? We examine the results in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, focusing on the struggle among the Democratic establishment, progressives, and democratic socialists over electability, Israel and Palestine, racial representation, and party resources. We also explore why primary polling missed the mark so badly: how turnout composition, late momentum, campaign spending, and organizing capacity can make an apparently secure lead disappear on Election Day. We also survey the Senate map that could determine control of the chamber, including Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa. Which races present genuine opportunities to flip a seat, and which would become competitive only in a wave election? The 2026 midterms are not simply a contest between red and blue. They are also an internal struggle over who represents each party and who can actually win a general election. This episode was recorded on August 16. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ (https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/) Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 05:11 (#t=05:11) Trump-backed candidates fall short as his grip on the GOP shows signs of weakening 12:23 (#t=12:23) Why seven incumbent House Democrats lost their primaries 19:10 (#t=19:10) Michigan and Wisconsin: Progressives, the establishment, and “electability” 40:24 (#t=40:24) Minnesota and the rise of democratic socialists 43:16 (#t=43:16) Why primary polling keeps missing the mark 48:24 (#t=48:24) Texas and Michigan: Two different challenges in the battle for the Senate 55:31 (#t=55:31) Maine: Can Susan Collins hold on to her seat? 58:37 (#t=58:37) Ohio: Sherrod Brown’s path to a comeback 1:06:00 (#t=1:06:00) Alaska: Same-name candidates and the ranked-choice voting wildcard 1:12:16 (#t=1:12:16) Georgia and North Carolina: Why the Democrats’ leads look solid 1:16:53 (#t=1:16:53) Iowa: Can local issues put a red state in play? 1:22:13 (#t=1:22:13) Could Montana, Nebraska, or Kansas deliver an upset? 1:25:54 (#t=1:25:54) Fetterman and the decisive vote for control of the Senate 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer
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- 4.5 / 5
- 54 ratings
- Spotify
- 4.7 / 5
- 30 ratings
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Who hosts 美轮美换 The American Roulette?
Haolan Wang and Xiao Hua and Talich host the show. Published by Baihua Media.
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