VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market
Claim This Podcastby Jason Zilberbrand
Podcast Overview
<p>Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: <strong>VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services </strong></p>
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Publishing Since
9/3/2025
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Recent Episodes
June 1, 2026
The Post-COVID Boom Is DEAD: Why Q2 Is Forcing Aviation Back To Reality | EP 38
<p>In this episode of <i>The Truth About the Market</i>, Jason breaks down the Q2 2026 market numbers and explains why the aircraft market has fully unwound from the extraordinary conditions of 2021 and 2022.</p><h3>In this episode, we cover:</h3><ul><li>Why April 2026 transaction volume is one of the weakest April readings of the last decade</li><li>How current closings compare to 2025, 2024, and the extraordinary post-COVID market of 2022</li><li>Why transaction volume tells more truth than listings, asking prices, or scraped internet data</li><li>Why the post-COVID market has fully unwound</li><li>How buyers have become more disciplined and less willing to chase aircraft just because inventory exists</li><li>Why capital markets are underwriting risk again</li><li>How lenders are scrutinizing assets more closely before approving deals</li><li>Why light jets remain resilient even as transaction volume pulls back</li><li>How light jets are benefiting from buyers moving away from twin turboprops and twin piston aircraft</li><li>Why efficient lift still matters in a more disciplined market</li><li>Why elevated asking prices in light jets do not tell the whole story</li><li>Why the super midsize market deserves serious attention</li><li>How super midsize aircraft have seen some of the most meaningful pricing pressure in the market</li><li>Why super mids sit at the intersection of financing sensitivity, affordability, and capital discipline</li><li>Why large cabin aircraft remain highly selective due to narrower buyer pools and enormous capital commitments</li><li>How turboprops remain strong utility aircraft, even as inventory rises and selling cycles lengthen</li><li>Why piston aircraft remain historically strong, even as transaction activity softens</li><li>How total business jet and turboprop inventory has recovered from post-COVID lows but remains below pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Why today’s market is defined by slower transactions, selective buyers, longer decision cycles, and disciplined capital</li><li>Why aircraft no longer sell simply because they exist</li><li>Why buyers are evaluating maintenance exposure, residual value risk, and mission fit more carefully</li><li>Why social media narratives around “off-market aircraft” often exaggerate scarcity</li><li>Why many so-called off-market opportunities are really just manufactured exclusivity</li><li>How cash buyers are gaining leverage as lenders require larger down payments</li><li>Why some aircraft now require 25, 30, or even 40 percent down</li><li>How the Iran conflict and fuel shock are changing operating assumptions</li><li>Why fuel prices may become one of the defining aviation topics of 2026</li><li>How higher fuel, parts, logistics, maintenance, training, and charter costs compound across ownership</li><li>Why operating economics are now central to aircraft acquisition decisions</li><li>Why aircraft values are returning to traditional depreciation curves in many categories</li><li>How legacy aircraft, Hawkers, CJ-series aircraft, and older vintage categories continue facing pressure</li><li>Why current production aircraft from Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Embraer remain comparatively strong</li><li>Why the piston market continues to hold up better than many expect</li><li>Why summer seasonality could deepen the slowdown into Q3</li></ul><p>For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://vref.com/vref-online-aircraft-valuation-platform/" target="_blank">subscribe to VREF Online.</a></p><p>Fly safe. Stay smart.</p>
May 29, 2026
The Charts Are Lying: Why The Aviation Market Is Moving Were Data Scrapers Can't See | EP 37
<p>Here’s the condensed version under 4,000 characters:</p><p>Podcast: The Truth About the Market<br />Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF</p><p>Everyone is looking at charts right now.</p><p>Asking prices.<br />Inventory counts.<br />Scraped listing data.<br />AI-generated market summaries.</p><p>And most of them are missing the same thing.</p><p>The market is moving.</p><p>It is just not moving where they are looking.</p><p>In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down why aircraft markets rarely reveal stress through public pricing first. They reveal it through behavior: slower calls, longer negotiations, wider gaps between asking and closing prices, failed pre-buys, tighter financing, restrictive insurance, and deals that quietly die before anyone reports them.</p><p>Because aviation is not a transparent market.<br />There is no clean public record of every transaction.<br />There is no chart that captures concessions, failed deals, maintenance exposure, financing friction, or buyer hesitation.</p><p>And that is exactly why scraped listing data can look convincing while still missing the real market.</p><p>In this episode, Jason covers:</p><p>• Why aviation markets speak through behavior before they speak through price</p><p>• Why asking prices can create the illusion of stability while liquidity deteriorates underneath</p><p>• How aircraft owners, brokers, and lenders resist admitting market change for as long as possible</p><p>• Why frozen markets can look healthy to outsiders staring at listings online</p><p>• How the spread between asking price and actual closing price is widening</p><p>• Why failed pre-buys, underwriting friction, and stalled negotiations often reveal more than closed transactions</p><p>• How scraped listings create polished distortions when treated as complete market intelligence</p><p>• Why public asking prices are marketing tools, not verified market conclusions</p><p>• Why aviation has no true MLS system, and why that matters for valuation</p><p>• How concessions, maintenance findings, financing issues, insurance limits, and failed deals remain invisible in public data</p><p>• Why a regression model built on incomplete listings can look sophisticated and still be wrong</p><p>• Why real price discovery happens in lender reviews, insurance underwriting, maintenance evaluations, and private negotiations</p><p>• How aviation markets freeze before they visibly correct</p><p>• Why buyers price forward while sellers stay anchored to old comps</p><p>• Why older, unsupported, high-maintenance, or avionics-limited aircraft may separate from the fleet first</p><p>• Why insurance and financing are becoming gatekeepers for aircraft marketability</p><p>Jason also explains why the future of aircraft value will increasingly depend on survivability, supportability, and long-term economic relevance.</p><p>Not just age.<br />Not just total time.<br />Not just asking price.<br />Not just a chart.</p><p>Because aircraft are not commodities moving through a perfectly transparent exchange.</p><p>They are individualized capital assets with unique histories, risks, maintenance profiles, financing constraints, insurance realities, buyer psychology, and seller pressure.</p><p>The bottom line:</p><p>The aircraft market is moving.</p><p>But the first signs are not showing up in scraped listings or polished dashboards.</p><p>They are showing up in behavior.</p><p>Slower transactions.<br />Wider spreads.<br />More hesitation.<br />Tighter capital.<br />Stricter insurance.<br />Selective buyers.<br />Deals that never close.</p><p>By the time public data finally catches up, the real market has usually already moved.</p><p>For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, visit <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://VREF.com" target="_blank">VREF.com</a>.</p><p>Fly safe. Stay smart.</p>
May 24, 2026
The Aircraft Market Lost Its Nerve: Why Falling Prices Still Won't Make Buyers Move | EP 36
<p><i>Podcast: The Truth About the Market<br />Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF</i></p><p></p><p>The headlines say the pre-owned aircraft market is flourishing.</p><p></p><p>Deals are closing faster.<br />Pricing is stabilizing.<br />Buyers are active.</p><p></p><p>But the data tells a very different story.</p><p></p><p>Inventory is essentially flat year over year. Asking prices have dropped materially. And yet transaction volume is collapsing.</p><p></p><p>That is not a normal buyer’s market.</p><p></p><p>In this episode of <i>The Truth About the Market</i>, Jason breaks down the disconnect between the industry narrative and what the numbers are actually showing. Because when prices fall and deals still don’t clear, the problem is no longer just pricing.</p><p></p><p>It is confidence.</p><p></p><p>Buyers are stepping back.<br />Sellers are still reacting too late.<br /></p><p>And the market is entering a dangerous zone where activity slows before true price discovery can happen.</p><h3>In this episode, we cover:</h3><ul><li>Why the “flourishing market” headline does not match current transaction data</li><li>How inventory can remain stable while market participation collapses</li><li>Why a 20 to 25 percent drop in average asking prices still has not unlocked demand</li><li>What a 33 percent year-to-date drop in transaction volume really signals</li><li>Why April’s nearly 46 percent decline matters more than most people realize</li><li>The illusion of a buyer’s market when buyers are not actually transacting</li><li>Why lower prices normally accelerate closings — and why that is not happening now</li><li>How seller expectations are chasing the market lower, but still not closing the gap</li><li>Why buyers are underwriting where they think the market is going, not where prices sit today</li><li>How bid-ask deadlock forms when sellers adjust backward and buyers price forward</li><li>Why transaction volume usually collapses before pricing finds a bottom</li><li>The difference between price correction and liquidity breakdown</li><li>Why time on market is now one of the clearest stress signals in the market</li><li>How long-sitting inventory reveals structural resistance, not simple mispricing</li><li>Why helicopters, older jets, turboprops, midsize aircraft, and super-mids are all responding differently</li><li>How functional obsolescence is becoming a serious issue for older aircraft</li><li>Why king airs and twin turboprops are facing more pressure as fuel and maintenance costs rise</li><li>Why late-model aircraft are still holding better than the broader market</li><li>What needs to happen before transaction activity returns</li><li>Why liquidity often comes back in clusters, not gradually</li><li>Why the next phase may involve motivated sellers, constrained operators, and forced timing decisions</li></ul><p></p><p>Jason also explains why this moment is more dangerous than a sharp correction.</p><p></p><p>A correction forces decisions.<br />This market delays them.</p><p></p><p>It stretches timelines, widens the gap between expectations and reality, and creates a holding pattern where pressure continues building beneath the surface.</p><h3>The bottom line:</h3><p>This is not just a pricing problem anymore.</p><p>It's a confidence problem.</p><p></p><p>Markets do not reset all at once.</p><p></p><p>They compress.<br />They stall.<br />They freeze.</p><p></p><p>And then, when enough pressure builds, they move.</p><p></p><p>For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, visit <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://VREF.com" target="_blank"><b>VREF.com</b></a>.</p><p></p><p>Fly safe. Stay smart.</p>
38 total episodes available
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- What is VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market?
<p>Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: <strong>VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services </strong></p> - How often does this podcast release new episodes?
This podcast updates daily.
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This podcast is available on 4 platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more. You can also use the RSS feed directly.
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No, this podcast does not typically feature guests.
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