CAPS Unlock Podcast

About CAPS Unlock Podcast

havli.substack.com (https://havli.substack.com/s/caps-unlock-podcast?utm_medium=podcast)

Publisher

Peter Leonard

Category

news

Language

en

Explicit

No

First episode

26 Nov 2024

Latest episode

6 Oct 2026

Latest episodes

62 episodes in the feed.

1. 

   6 Oct 2026

   Turkmenistan’s e-visa test: A door opens... on paper

   This week, we begin with Turkmenistan’s announcement that its e-visa system has finally gone live. On paper, this could remove a major obstacle for visitors. Tourists have traditionally needed a letter of invitation and a package from a licensed local agency, with hotels, transport and a guide arranged in advance. The new system is supposed to move the application online and eliminate the separate invitation. Yet crucial details remain unclear: the portal is difficult to locate, and the authorities have not explained eligibility, fees, processing times or whether travellers can apply without an intermediary. We ask whether this represents a genuine opening, or does it simply adds a digital layer to an unusually restrictive system? Our second topic is the 25 percent rise in trade among the five Central Asian states. They exported $8.1 billion in goods to one another between January and July, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan responsible for more than 80 percent of the total. We look beyond the headline at Kazakhstan’s dominant role, Uzbekistan’s expansion as both buyer and seller, Turkmen gas and electricity exports, and the threefold rebound in Kyrgyz-Tajik trade after their border reopened. The figures point to stronger regional ties, but not yet a common market. Much of the increase appears to involve larger shipments of familiar products along established routes, while smaller private exporters still face customs delays, certification rules, currency constraints and expensive logistics. And for this week’s interview, we spoke with Zhanibek Arynov, Assistant Professor at Nazarbayev University’s Graduate School of Public Policy. His ongoing research uses focus groups with university students to test whether a Central Asian identity exists beyond official diplomacy. His preliminary findings suggest that young Kazakhs do see Central Asia as a coherent region, while remaining Kazakh first and Central Asian second. They feel closest to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, know less about Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and show little attachment to the older, Russia-associated idea of Eurasianism. Arynov cautions, however, that enthusiasm for regional unity may partly reflect limited knowledge of neighbouring countries and of the difficult choices that closer integration would raise. Links * Turkmenistan Launches E-Visas and Online Registration for Foreign Citizens (https://turkmenistaninfo.gov.tm/en/news/turkmenistan-zapusti-1), Turkmenistan Information Portal * Intra-Regional Trade in Central Asia in January–July 2026 (https://review.uz/en/post/vzaimnaya-torgovlya-stran-centralnoy-azii-za-7-mesyacev-2026-g), Center for Economic Research and Reforms * Foreign Trade of Central Asian Countries: Trends, Barriers, and Prospects (https://capsunlock.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/foreign-trade-of-central-asian-countries-trends-barriers-and-prospects.pdf), by Yuliy Yusupov * Central Asia’s Ticket to Ride Out of Trade Isolation (https://capsunlock.org/central-asias-ticket-to-ride-out-of-trade-isolation/), by Yuliy Yusupov * Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System (https://capsunlock.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eng_the-argument_zebo.pdf), by Zebo Isakova * Zhanibek Arynov’s academic profile (https://gspp.nu.edu.kz/zhanibekarynov), Nazarbayev University Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe (https://havli.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

2. 

   29 Sept 2026

   Caspian tragedy forces Kazakhstan’s army reckoning

   We began this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast with the deaths of 14 Kazakh servicemen during a naval exercise on the Caspian coast. Seventeen men were swept into the sea during an amphibious landing, but only three survived. The Defence Ministry initially attributed the disaster to a sudden deterioration in the weather, but weather forecasters had already issued a warning. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev later said the servicemen had not been properly equipped with life jackets. Five officers have been detained, Defence Minister Dauren Kosanov has been removed, and two commissions are examining both the incident and the wider condition of Kazakhstan’s armed forces. The tragedy has revived arguments over military safety, compulsory service and whether lessons were learned after a similar fatal exercise in 2015. Also, we considered Kyrgyzstan’s order for 10 freight locomotives from the U.S. company Wabtec. The purchase will renew almost a third of the national operator’s fleet and comes as Kyrgyzstan builds the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Wabtec is American, but its regional manufacturing base is the LKZ factory in Astana, which it now owns outright. We trace that factory’s Kazakh, Russian and American history, and ask how the locomotive order fits alongside Chinese railway construction and Kyrgyzstan’s new transit-trade agreement with Pakistan. These projects reveal an emerging transport system built from American technology, Kazakh industry, Chinese infrastructure and access to South Asian ports. For our interview, recorded during ASIAC Days in Almaty, we spoke to Aleksei Chigadaev, a doctoral candidate in political science at Freie Universität Berlin. His ongoing research treats Chinese e-commerce as a form of infrastructural power. Chinese companies may supply not only a product but also the marketplace, payment system, warehouse, delivery network and data storage behind the purchase. This makes trade more efficient and easier to regulate, but it may also leave Kazakhstan dependent on commercial systems controlled elsewhere. Links * 14 Dead on the Caspian: What Questions Has the Tragedy Posed for Kazakhstan’s Army? (https://informburo.kz/stati/14-pogibsix-na-kaspii-kakie-glavnye-voprosy-tragediia-postavila-pered-armiei-kazaxstana), Informburo * Kazakhstan’s Tokayev Dismisses Defence Minister After 14 Die During Naval Exercise (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstans-tokayev-dismisses-defence-minister-after-14-die-during-naval-2026-09-27/), Reuters * Bodies of Two Missing Caspian Servicemen Found; Search Operation Completed (https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mod/press/news/details/1298869?lang=ru), Kazakhstan Ministry of Defence * Kyrgyzstan Will Purchase 10 Mainline Freight Locomotives from the United States (https://ru.kabar.kg/news/kyrgyzstan-priobretet-10-magistralnyx-gruzovyx-lokomotivov-u-ssha/), Kabar * How Kazakhstan Is Poised to Drive Wabtec’s Growth in Central Asia (https://www.wabteccorp.com/trains-of-thought/how-kazakhstan-is-poised-to-drive-wabtec-s-growth-in-central-asia), Wabtec * Work Proceeds on Tunnels for the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway (https://mtd.gov.kg/%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B5-%D0%BA%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%B3%D1%8B%D0%B7%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD-%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B9/), Kyrgyz Ministry of Transport and Communications * Joint Statement by the Leaders of Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan (https://mofa.gov.pk/press-releases/joint-statement-of-the-prime-minister-of-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan-his-excellency-muhammad-shehbaz-sharif-and-president-of-the-kyrgyz-republic-his-excellency-sadyr-zhaparov), Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe (https://havli.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

3. 

   22 Sept 2026

   Why does gas-rich Kazakhstan need Gazprom?

   This week, after an unplanned delay, we return to the podcast with a discussion of Kazakhstan’s seemingly growing reliance on Russian natural gas for its domestic needs. The country plans to buy around 11 billion cubic metres from Gazprom in 2026, almost three times last year’s volume, with another 9 billion under discussion for 2027. That sounds counterintuitive for a major oil-and-gas producer. The explanation lies less in the size of Kazakhstan’s reserves than in its ability to process the gas it extracts and turn it into marketable fuel. Disruptions at Tengiz, damage to the Russian processing plant serving Karachaganak and repeated delays to new processing capacity at Kashagan have squeezed supply just as household connections and industrial demand have expanded. Russian imports may address the immediate shortage, but the continued high volumes anticipated next year point to a more structural problem. In our other topic of discussion, we turn to the case of Mansur Movlayev, a 31-year-old Chechen dissident detained in Kazakhstan since May 2025. Russia seeks his extradition over an accusation that he financed extremist activity. Movlayev says the case is politically motivated and that Chechen security forces previously abducted and tortured him. Kazakhstan has refused him asylum and approved his extradition, although an interim-measures request from the UN Human Rights Committee calls on Kazakhstan not to remove him while it considers his complaint. After Kazakhstan’s Cassation Court upheld the refusal of asylum, Movlayev attempted to take his own life and reportedly made a second attempt while he received hospital treatment. His case tests Kazakhstan’s obligation not to return anyone to a country where they face a credible risk of torture. For our interview this week, we speak to Zebo Isakova, Doctor of Science in Economics at Kimyo International University in Tashkent. Her paper, “Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System,” appears in The Argument, CAPS Unlock’s policy essay series. Isakova argues that Uzbekistan has invested heavily in roads, railways and digital trade procedures without fully connecting the agencies responsible for individual shipments. Exporters must still navigate separate systems, repeat information and wait for sequential approvals. Larger companies can absorb those costs; smaller businesses frequently cannot. Links * Corridors Without Coordination: Why Uzbekistan’s Digital Trade Reforms Have Not Yet Produced an Integrated Export System (https://capsunlock.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/eng_the-argument_zebo.pdf), by Zebo Isakova * Why Has Kazakhstan Started Deporting Political Activists? (https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/03/kazakhstan-political-extraditions), by Temur Umarov * Russian Gas Supplies to Kazakhstan Could Triple to 11 bcm in 2026 — Deputy Minister (https://www.interfax.kz/en/news/82551), Interfax Kazakhstan * Россия захватывает газовую отрасль Казахстана? (https://exclusive.kz/rossija-zahvatyvaet-gazovuju-otrasl-kazahstana/) (Is Russia Taking Control of Kazakhstan’s Gas Industry?), Exclusive.kz * “I’m Tired of Injustice”: Chechen Activist Mansur Movlayev Attempted Suicide After Kazakhstan Denied Him Asylum (https://bureau.kz/en/sobstvennaya-informacziya-po-angl/im-tired-of-injustice/), Bureau.kz * Остался только страх. Почему Казахстан отказывает в убежище уроженцу Чечни (https://www.svoboda.org/a/ostalsya-toljko-strah-pochemu-kazahstan-otkazyvaet-v-ubezhische-urozhentsu-chechni/33857633.html) (Only Fear Remains: Why Kazakhstan Is Denying Asylum to a Chechen Native), Caucasus.Realities Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe (https://havli.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4)

Who has been a guest on CAPS Unlock Podcast

Names identified in recent episode analyses. Showing up to five guests.

• Marco Beretta
• Temur Umarov
• Chimguundari Navaan-Yunden
• Daniel Rosenblum
• Callum Voge

Reach and audience

Public platform figures. Ratings count people who left a rating, not total listeners.

Apple Podcasts (US)

5.0 / 5

1 ratings

Spotify

5.0 / 5

7 ratings

Podcast Authority Score: 37 / 100

A composite of feed quality, social presence, YouTube performance and engagement. Read the methodology.

Quality

74

Social presence

0

YouTube

0

Engagement

0

Contact CAPS Unlock Podcast

Guest appearances

Books guests

Based on episode analysis; this does not confirm that the show is currently accepting guests.

Shows with a similar audience

• 

  Turan Tales

• 

  Spotlight on Central Asia

• 

  In Moscow's Shadows

• 

  Russian Roulette

• 

  The Rachman Review

• 

  EU Confidential

Questions about CAPS Unlock Podcast