6 Nov 2026
英语新闻丨Major changes in US foreign policy 'unlikely'
As a decisive blue wave sweeps the United States in the midterm elections, with the Democrats winning clear majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, analysts expect stronger scrutiny of the administration led by US President Donald Trump, but noted that the shift in congressional power may not necessarily effect major changes in the US' foreign policy.
随着一股声势浩大的蓝潮席卷美国中期选举，民主党在参众两院均拿下明确多数席位，分析人士预计特朗普政府将面临更严格的监督，但同时指出，国会权力更迭未必会令美国外交政策出现重大转向。
As of Wednesday, Democrats and independents who caucus with them had secured at least 54 seats in the 100-member Senate, including traditionally Republican strongholds such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, while counting continued in some states.
截至周三，民主党及与民主党结成党团的无党派人士已在 100 席的参议院拿下至少 54 席，其中包括得克萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、堪萨斯州等传统共和党票仓，部分州的选票统计仍在进行。
In the 435-member House, Democrats had already won 240 seats to cross the majority threshold, even though some races had not yet been called.
在共 435 个席位的众议院，民主党已经拿下 240 席，跨过多数门槛，部分选区的选举结果尚未官宣。
The newly elected Congress will be sworn in on Jan 3.
新一届国会将于 1 月 3 日宣誓就职。
In a discussion hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Wednesday, Daniel Drezner, a professor at Tufts University in Massachusetts, linked the US' foreign policy and the economic concerns of voters.
周三，在芝加哥全球事务委员会举办的研讨会上，马萨诸塞州塔夫茨大学教授丹尼尔・德雷兹纳将美国外交政策与选民关切的经济议题联系在一起。
"Americans fundamentally do not care about foreign policy, unless it affects their bottom line," Drezner said, as the discussion repeatedly veered between the impact of the Iran war and the increasing cost of living.
“美国人本质上并不关心外交政策，除非它影响到自身实际收益。” 德雷兹纳说。整场讨论反复在伊朗战争的影响与生活成本上涨之间切换。
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, wrote on the institute's website on Wednesday that the Iran war played an unusually important electoral role because voters had to bear the brunt of high energy prices.
华盛顿卡托研究所国防与外交政策研究主任贾斯汀・洛根周三在该研究所官网撰文称，伊朗战争在本次选举中起到非同寻常的作用，选民不得不承受能源高价带来的冲击。
In his first comments on Wednesday after Democrats pulled off a striking election performance, Trump largely agreed with Vice-President JD Vance, who publicly ruminated on the Iran war being a catastrophe for Republicans.
民主党取得亮眼选举结果后，特朗普于周三首次发声，他大体认同副总统 JD・万斯的看法，万斯公开认为伊朗战争是共和党遭遇的一场灾难。
"It's largely true because it drove gasoline up a little bit," Trump said, while Vance said in a post on social media that the "real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone".
“这话大体没错，因为油价确实被推高了一些。” 特朗普表示。万斯则在社交媒体发帖称，“我们失利的真正原因几乎人尽皆知。”
While the newly elected Congress is likely to prepare a vast oversight agenda to rein in the Trump administration, Jack Midgley, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, told China Daily that the US president's veto power and broad executive authority would limit the Democrats' ability to enact major legislation. Congressional investigations could take precedence over lawmaking, he said.
尽管新一届国会大概率会推出一揽子监督议程以约束特朗普政府，华盛顿乔治敦大学兼职副教授杰克・米德格利在接受《中国日报》采访时表示，总统拥有否决权以及广泛行政权力，会限制民主党出台重大法案的空间。他说，国会调查或将优先于立法工作。
Drezner, from Tufts University, drew a distinction between the Democratic Congress elected in 2006, which failed to prevent then president George W. Bush's troop surge in Iraq, and the Democratic Congress elected in 1974, which built on Watergate-era reforms passed by its predecessor to help sustain and enforce stronger limits on executive power.
塔夫茨大学的德雷兹纳对比了两届民主党掌控的国会：2006 年选出的民主党国会未能阻止时任总统小布什向伊拉克增兵；而 1974 年选出的民主党国会，在水门事件前期改革基础上，持续落实、强化对行政权力的约束。
The professor said that he expects the newly elected Congress to land somewhere between those two precedents.
这位教授称，他预计新一届国会的表现会介于这两个先例之间。
Experts from the Council on Foreign Relations in New York noted that Democrats would chair committees, exercise leverage over federal spending and, through the Senate, decide whether to confirm senior administration nominees.
纽约外交关系协会的专家指出，民主党将执掌各委员会，对联邦开支施加影响力，并依托参议院，决定是否批准政府高层提名人选。
Pierre Yared, a senior fellow at the CFR, said that Democratic control of Congress is unlikely to unilaterally change Trump's tariff policy, because the president is exercising congressionally delegated authority.
该协会高级研究员皮埃尔・亚雷德表示，即便民主党掌控国会，也很难单方面改变特朗普的关税政策，因为总统行使的是国会授予的权力。
Drezner, however, indicated the possibility of a bipartisan action, because some Republicans also oppose Trump's tariffs.
不过德雷兹纳认为，两党仍存在联合行动的可能性，部分共和党人同样反对特朗普的关税政策。
Meanwhile, fiscal disputes could prove consequential beyond Washington. Josh Lipsky and Bart Piasecki of the Atlantic Council warned in an article published on Wednesday that negotiations on federal spending and the debt ceiling in 2027 could create uncertainty for US financial markets and the global economy.
与此同时，财政争端带来的影响或将溢出华盛顿。大西洋理事会的乔希・利普斯基与巴特・皮亚塞基周三发文警示，2027 年联邦开支与债务上限谈判，可能给美国金融市场和全球经济带来不确定性。
Reflecting on other areas of foreign policy, Christopher Preble, a senior fellow and director at the Stimson Center in Washington, called on lawmakers to use oversight and funding powers to press for an end to the Iran war.
谈及其他外交领域，华盛顿史汀生中心高级研究员、项目主任克里斯托弗・普雷布尔呼吁议员利用监督与拨款权力，推动结束伊朗战争。
Leslie Vinjamuri, president and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said that Trump could pursue diplomatic agreements, including on Ukraine, to build a presidential legacy at this critical juncture of his term, rather than becoming more confrontational abroad.
芝加哥全球事务委员会主席兼首席执行官莱斯利・温贾穆里认为，特朗普在任期这个关键节点，可能会推进包括乌克兰议题在内的外交协议，打造执政遗产，而非在海外采取更强硬的对抗路线。
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the CFR, noted that the US' Asian allies could expect and welcome stronger congressional oversight, but they should not expect immediate tariff relief given Trump's veto power.
外交关系协会东南亚事务高级研究员约书亚・库兰茨克指出，美国亚洲盟友可以期待并欢迎国会加强监督，但鉴于特朗普的否决权，不应指望关税立刻放宽。
Andrew Hyde, a senior fellow and director at the Stimson Center, warned European governments not to count on Democratic control of Congress bringing back the old transatlantic relationship.
史汀生中心高级研究员、项目主任安德鲁・海德提醒欧洲各国政府，不要指望民主党掌控国会就能恢复昔日跨大西洋关系。
For Democrats, gaining control is only the beginning of a tough test. Vinjamuri, from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, said what truly matters to voters is whether the party can help deliver lower food, housing and gasoline prices.
对民主党而言，拿下国会控制权只是严峻考验的开端。该委员会的温贾穆里说，选民真正关心的，是民主党能否推动食品、住房和汽油价格回落。
scrutiny /ˈskruːtəni/n. 仔细审查，监督
precedent /ˈpresɪdənt/n. 先例
bipartisan /ˌbaɪˈpɑːtɪzn/adj. 两党的，跨党派的
juncture /ˈdʒʌŋktʃə(r)/n. 关键时刻，节点
