by E药经理人读书
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April 30, 2025
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>新诺威</span><span>营收</span><span>支柱依然是</span><span>功能食品及原料，</span><span>营收占比达九成以上。</span><span>该</span><span>业务</span><span>板块2024年实现销售收入18.4亿元</span><span>，</span><span>比下降24.9%</span><span>。这</span><span>主要</span><span>是由于</span><span>市场</span><span>剧烈波动，此前处于高位的</span><span>咖啡因价格</span><span>出现明显</span><span>回落。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>而从</span><span>长远视角</span><span>来看，功能食品原料市场整体</span><span>面临着</span><span>需求</span><span>持续</span><span>疲软</span><span>的困境</span><span>，同时</span><span>，</span><span>行业产能过剩问题日益凸显</span><span>。双重压力之下，</span><span>该业务板块</span><span>未来的</span><span>盈利能力或将进一步压缩。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>在新诺威的业务版图中，生物制药板块作为新生力量备受瞩目。</span><span>目前，</span><span>该板块主要</span><span>依托已</span><span>完成增资控股、正式并表的巨</span><span></span><span>石生物，</span><span>而</span><span>石药百克项目</span><span>仍处于推进阶段</span><span>。</span><span>值得关注的是，</span><span>仅凭巨石生物一己之力，</span><span>就</span><span>足以让新诺威的创新资产规模与竞争力，一举超越众多Biotech</span><span>（生物技术）</span><span>上市公司。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>从研发管线来看，巨石生物在研创新项目超过20个，其中6个项目已进入关键临床试验阶段。值得一提的是，乌司奴单抗注射液已递交上市申请，有望在短期内实现商业化突破，为新诺威生物制药业务的发展注入强劲动力。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>然而，如同众多</span><span>Biotech</span><span>公司</span><span>一样，新药研发的“</span><span>烧钱</span><span>”特性在巨石生物身上同样显著。自</span><span>2019年成立</span><span>以来，</span><span>巨石生物至今仍</span><span>处于“</span><span>流血”经营</span><span>的状态。</span><span>2024年，巨石生物收入不到1亿</span><span>元</span><span>，却产生了高达7.27亿元的净亏损</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>巨石生物并入新诺威后，新诺威业绩不可避免地受到冲击</span><span>。2024年，</span><span>新诺威</span><span>研发创新投入达8.42亿元，同比增幅超过了25%，研发投入占营收比例从26.45%</span><span>跃升至</span><span>42.52%。临床试验及技术服务费用也近乎</span><span>翻倍</span><span>，从2023年的2.34亿元增加至4.22亿元。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>如此大规模的</span><span>研发投入，</span><span>对新诺威的现金流造成了显著压力。</span><span>2023年，新诺威经营活动净现金流量净额为7.21亿</span><span>元</span><span>，2024年</span><span>，这一数据骤降至</span><span>负</span><span>12.35亿</span><span>元</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>众多在研</span><span>项目</span><span>持续</span><span>消耗着</span><span>巨额</span><span>资金</span><span>与</span><span>资源，如果</span><span>缺乏具备</span><span>FIC</span><span>（</span><span>同类首创</span><span>）或</span><span>BIC</span><span>（同类最佳）</span><span>潜力的重磅创新药品种，</span><span>后续</span><span>平庸的临床进展</span><span>不仅难以形成正向的商业回报，还将持续</span><span>挤压利润空间</span><span>，</span><span>加剧企业的经营压力与财务风险。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>然而，</span><span>审视新诺威现有的在研管线布局，尚未呈现出极具确定性的重磅潜力项目。重组后的创新资产虽覆盖多个热门靶点与技术领域，表面看似丰富多元，但整体缺乏清晰的战略主线，难以形成聚焦效应。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>首先是mRNA疫苗资产和抗体药物。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>2023年</span><span>，</span><span>石药集团成功获批首个国产mRNA疫苗，这的确向业界证明了石药的mRNA平台实力</span><span>。</span><span>但如今</span><span>，</span><span>该技术平台的</span><span>在研</span><span>管线</span><span>短期内难以实现商业价值。</span><span>比如</span><span>，</span><span>目前在研</span><span>的</span><span>呼吸道合胞病毒</span><span>（</span><span>RSV</span><span>）</span><span>mRNA</span><span>、</span><span>人乳头瘤病毒</span><span>（</span><span>HPV</span><span>）</span><span>mRNA等项目，</span><span>均处于临</span><span>床</span><span>早期阶段</span><span>。短期内难以对业绩形成有效支撑。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>其次，新诺威</span><span>有两个已于2024年上市的面向宫颈癌</span><span>的</span><span>PD-1抗体药物——恩朗苏拜单抗注射液和奥马珠单抗生物类似药</span><span>。然而，这</span><span>两款产品尚未</span><span>实现市场规模的有效扩张，且增长潜力面临明显瓶颈</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>从市场竞争格局来看，</span><span>PD-（L）1</span><span>抑制剂</span><span>市场</span><span>早已</span><span>红海一片，</span><span>新诺威</span><span>2024年</span><span>才入局该赛道，</span><span>属实过晚</span><span>。在</span><span>宫颈癌这一适应证</span><span>方面，</span><span>已有</span><span>多家企业的</span><span>PD-（L）1</span><span>提前布局，市场竞争异常激烈。而随着</span><span>奥马珠单抗</span><span>专利逐步到期，将会有更多企业入局这一领域。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>石药集团正在全力押注创新药赛道</span><span>。</span><span>随着资本市场热度降温，石药集团如何重拾</span><span>创新</span><span>信心</span><span>，请您节后接着收听。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span> 感谢您的收听，祝听众朋友们五一节快乐。我们节后，不听不散。</span></p>
April 29, 2025
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>当石药集团将核心创新资产悉数注入新诺威</span><span>（石药集团旗下子公司）时</span><span>，资本市场的目光瞬间聚焦——这场战略重组是否会成为转折点？</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>自深度绑定石药集团的创新战略后，</span><span>新诺威的年报清晰暴露了其转型的阵痛。</span><span>财报显示，2024年</span><span>新诺威</span><span>营收为19.81亿元，同比减少21.98%；归母净利润为5372.63万元，同比减少87.63%。扣非净利润为4234.19万元，同比下滑了94.31%</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>财报发布当日</span><span>，</span><span>新诺威股价盘</span><span>中</span><span>一度下挫</span><span>近8%</span><span>；</span><span>次交易日，新诺威仍以超5%的跌幅收盘。两日连续走低的表现，清晰折射出投资者的审慎态度。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>事实上，</span><span>二级市场对新诺威的</span><span>狂热</span><span>炒作已</span><span>逐渐降温。</span><span>近一年</span><span>来，</span><span>公司股价涨幅</span><span>仅约</span><span>25%，</span><span>与</span><span>上一周期年超300%</span><span>的狂飙形成鲜明对比</span><span>。</span><span>新诺威的市值在冲击</span><span>600亿</span><span>元</span><span>高点</span><span>后，</span><span>已持续震荡长达一年零三个月</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>当石药</span><span>集团</span><span>、恒瑞</span><span>医药、</span><span>中生制药</span><span>“</span><span>三剑客</span><span>”</span><span>都不约而同地</span><span>开启</span><span>“</span><span>A+H</span><span>”</span><span>双资本平台布局</span><span>，</span><span>中国医药行业的新一轮竞争大幕已然拉开</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>上一轮PK赛中，石药</span><span>集团</span><span>低调布局了</span><span>诸多</span><span>创新管线，却因尚未孕育出一款具备全球突破性的重磅创新药，陷入“规模庞大却创新不足”的舆论争议</span><span>之中</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>当前</span><span>，</span><span>创新药行业正迎来周期性复苏。对新诺威而言，若能适时释放BD</span><span>（商务拓展）</span><span>合作信号，</span><span>将助力其</span><span>市值</span><span>实现突破性</span><span>增长；反之，若缺乏亮眼的临床数据与实质性</span><span>B</span><span>D进展，即便搭上行业回暖的顺风车，其估值增长也将面临后劲不足的困境。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>2019年，石药集团正式分拆新诺威在创业板上市</span><span>。</span><span>新诺威是石药旗下一家主营咖啡因及维他命保健产品业务的公司。此次分拆旨在构建双融资通道，提升资本运作灵活性，同时聚焦大健康赛道，通过独立上市确认并释放新诺威的市场价值，为股东创造增量收益。彼时，新诺威</span><span>可</span><span>被赋予深耕大健康领域的战略使命。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>5</span><span>年后，生物医药行业风云突变</span><span>，</span><span>创新药发展速度</span><span>远超预期</span><span>，石药</span><span>集团开启战略转型加速键</span><span>。自2023年下半年以来，石药</span><span>集团陆续</span><span>将旗下创新平台巨石生物、石药百克注入新诺威，并将</span><span>新诺威的</span><span>中文名变更为“石药创新”，</span><span>由此可见石药集团深耕</span><span>创新</span><span>药</span><span>赛道的决心与魄力。</span> </p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"> <span>这一次</span><span>，新诺威被赋予向创新药领域深度转型的历史使命。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span> 几乎所有前沿生物技术创新管线都</span><span>打包</span><span>注入了新诺威，包括ADC</span><span>（</span><span>抗体偶联药物</span><span>）</span><span>组合、mRNA疫苗、GLP-1</span><span>（</span><span>胰高血糖素样肽-1</span><span>）</span><span>产品和</span><span>多个</span><span>自免</span><span>领域</span><span>的</span><span>重磅</span><span>生物类似药。</span><span>不仅如此，</span><span>明星产品升白药</span><span>“</span><span>津优力</span><span>”</span><span>这头“现金奶牛”也被纳入</span><span>新诺威。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>这是一场属于</span><span>石药</span><span>集团内部的资产腾挪和资源</span><span>优化配置</span><span>，巨石生物、石药百克和新诺威都是石药</span><span>集团</span><span>子公司，新诺威现任管理层均长期在新诺威/石药集团子公司任职。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>对石药集团而言，</span><span>重组资产</span><span>的流程相对清晰</span><span>，</span><span>但后续对资产的</span><span>消化</span><span>吸收</span><span>及协同</span><span>发展才是真正的挑战</span><span>。而</span><span>完成</span><span>身份</span><span>转</span><span>换后的首个完整</span><span>财年</span><span>，新诺威</span><span>就遭遇阵痛。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>石药集团正在全力押注创新药赛道</span><span>。</span><span>随着资本市场热度降温，石药集团如何重拾</span><span>创新</span><span>信心</span><span>，请您明天接着收听。</span></p>
April 28, 2025
<p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>在</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>“搭”上罗氏之前，</span><span>其</span><span>还曾被诺和诺德青睐过。</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>曾开发了一款新型人胰高血糖素类似物</span><span>达西格列酮</span><span>，该产品2021年6月在美国上市销售，但业绩表现不佳，这导致</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>在美国裁员90%，并削减了35%的开支，甚至更换了CEO，差一点就“熬”不到如今</span><span>与</span><span>罗氏“联姻”。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>历经商业化</span><span>遇阻</span><span>后，</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>意识到</span><span>“寻找合作伙伴，出售产品权益或对外授权，并精简运营</span><span>、</span><span>专注于研发”才是长久之计。因此</span><span>，</span><span>在2022年9月，</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>与诺和诺德就</span><span>达西格列酮</span><span>达成全球许可和开发协议，诺和诺德负责全球商业化，</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>则会得到预付款与里程碑付款等。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>与诺和诺德的合作，给</span><span>泽兰制药</span><span>“续了命”，与罗氏合作，则有望改写胰淀素类似物靶点药物未来的前景。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>探讨胰淀素类似物的未来价值，还是要回到其本身，以及这一赛道各个玩家的研究成果上来。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>从机制上看，胰淀素类似物是一种由胰岛β细胞分泌的多肽激素，具有抑制食欲的作用。其目前的研究数据表现出了与胰高血糖素样肽</span><span>-1</span><span>类药物相当的减重成果。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>不仅如此，由于机制是源于“抑制食欲”，胰淀素类似物在消化系统副作用，尤其是肌肉损失副作用上明显优于胰高血糖素样肽</span><span>-1</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>因此，过往未能在胰高血糖素样肽</span><span>-1</span><span>上抢占先机的</span><span>跨国药企</span><span>们，都试图通过布局胰淀素类似物，提前瓜分这块大蛋糕。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>虽然</span><span>罗氏、艾伯维在今年高调杀入胰淀素类似物</span><span>领域</span><span>，还是较诺和诺德晚了一步。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>诺和诺德的</span><span>卡格列肽</span><span>，实际才是基于胰淀素类似物靶点的在研药物中，进展</span><span>也是</span><span>最快</span><span>的</span><span>。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>卡格列肽</span><span>是一种长效的胰淀素类似物</span><span>。</span><span>实验证明</span><span>，</span><span>可以同时作用于降钙素受体和3种不同亚型的胰淀素受体。临床结果显示，</span><span>卡格列肽</span><span>具有很好的减重效果。在II期临床试验中，每周一次给药方案下的</span><span>卡格列肽</span><span>呈现出剂量依赖性的体重减轻作用，其效果介于6%</span><span>～</span><span>10.8%之间，相比之下，同样为3毫克剂量的利拉鲁肽带来的体重减轻为9%，而安慰剂组则只有3%的减轻幅度。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>除了单药研发，胰淀素类似物靶点与其他靶点的联合用药也展现出了巨大的潜力。诺和诺德的</span><span>司美格鲁肽联合卡格列肽</span><span>，就是一款结合了司美格鲁肽和</span><span>卡格列肽</span><span>的双重疗法，目前正在进行2型糖尿病和肥胖治疗的临床III期研究。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>随着对肥胖发病机制的深入研究，多靶点联合疗法逐渐成为减重药物研发的新趋势。这种疗法通过同时作用于多个靶点，发挥协同效应，能够更全面地调节人体的代谢功能，从而提高减重效果，减少副作用。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>罗氏在减肥药市场的一系列布局，已经展现出</span><span>其在</span><span>这一领域的野心和决心，</span><span>策略如同</span><span>其</span><span>曾经在单抗、双抗、ADC</span><span>（抗体-药物偶联物）</span><span>建立产品组合一样，</span><span>其</span><span>“野心”也在于不仅解决</span><span>了</span><span>减重问题，还将覆盖传统胰高血糖素样肽</span><span>-1</span><span>类药物存在的各类“不足”，构建一个多元化的产品组合，以在竞争激烈的减肥药市场中</span><span>突出重围</span><span>。而胰淀素类似物靶点的潜力，以及多靶点联合疗法的趋势，正是罗氏看重的。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>司美格鲁肽、替尔泊肽的大爆发让全球的药企看到了这个赛道的巨大潜力，而胰高血糖素样肽</span><span>-1</span><span>药物的局限性也给“下一个药王”留下</span><span>了</span><span>悬念。</span></p><span><br></span><p style="color:#333333;font-weight:normal;font-size:16px;line-height:30px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;hyphens:auto;text-align:justify;" data-flag="normal"><span>胰高血糖素样肽</span><span>-1</span><span>造就了诺和诺德和礼来的神话，胰淀素类似物等新靶点的混战，</span><span>映射出</span><span>药企对“下一个司美格鲁肽”的</span><span>热切追求</span><span>。而在这场战争中，罗氏、艾伯维们想要证明，</span><span>即便入局较晚，</span><span>仍有机会</span><span>重塑市场格局</span><span>。</span></p>
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